Retail Sales in Hong Kong
Hong Kong - Retail Sales
Retail sales year-on-year post largest decline on record in August
Retail sales volume plunged 25.3% year-on-year in August, a significant deterioration from July’s revised 13.1% contraction (previously reported: -13.0% year-on-year). August’s print was battered by the effects of mass protests and marked the sharpest annual decline in retail sales since current records began in 1981.
The print was driven by a broad-based contraction in sales across all types of retail outlets, with particularly sharp decreases for luxury goods such as jewelry, watches and clocks, in addition to clothing and footwear.
On a seasonally-adjusted, three-month moving average basis, retail sales volume in the June-August period fell 13.9% from the preceding three-month period ending in May, which posted a 5.5% fall in the May-July period. Overall, the annual average variation in retail sales volume continued to dip, from a 1.3% decline in the 12 months up to July to a 4.1% fall in the period ending August. Moreover, tourist arrivals from mainland China were down roughly 42% year-on-year in August, compounding the woes of luxury good sales—which depend heavily on purchases from visitors.
Going forward, continued civil unrest in September and October will continue to keep foot traffic at major shopping centers and inbound tourism downbeat, and in turn batter private consumption.
Commenting on how protests are affecting retail spending and the economy, analysts at Goldman Sachs, noted:
“The ongoing street protests since June have continued to affect business and leisure travel and spending. We recently cut our forecast for HK real GDP growth in Q3 to -2% yoy, and our 2019 full year GDP growth forecast is now at -0.6% yoy.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to decline 4.7% in 2019 and for 2020, the panel sees retail sales growing 1.7%.
Hong Kong - Retail Sales Data
|Retail Sales (annual variation in %)||11.1||-0.2||-1.5||-7.1||1.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Hong Kong Retail Sales Chart
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics calculations.
Hong Kong Facts
|Bond Yield||1.04||3.38 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||7.84||-0.11 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||26,523||-1.92 %||Sep 04|
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November 5, 2019
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), dropped to 39.3 in October from 41.5 in September—the lowest reading since November 2008. October’s deterioration was mainly the result of new orders falling at the steepest pace since January 2009, led by a record decrease in new orders from mainland China.
October 31, 2019
The preliminary GDP reading showed the economy contracted at the sharpest pace since June 2009 in the third quarter, as Hong Kong faced the double whammy of mass protests battering domestic demand and the U.S.-China trade war hampering the external sector.
October 22, 2019
Inflation ticked down to 3.2% in September from 3.5% in August.
October 4, 2019
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), ticked up from 40.8 in August to 41.5 in September; however, the index remained mired in a sharp downturn as the average PMI for the third quarter was lowest since the height of the global financial crisis approximately a decade ago. September’s uptick was mainly the result of softer, albeit still significant, declines in new orders and output—the second-steepest deteriorations since early 2009.
October 2, 2019
Retail sales volume plunged 25.3% year-on-year in August, a significant deterioration from July’s revised 13.1% contraction (previously reported: -13.0% year-on-year).