Merchandise exports fall in April as boost from front-loading ahead of U.S. tariff hikes fades

Latest reading: Merchandise exports shrank 1.7% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s 1.2% rise and marking the first decline in six months as front-loading efforts ahead of higher trade barriers simmered and U.S. tariff hikes came into play. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rebounded 3.9% on a monthly basis in April (March: +1.4% mom s.a.). As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a EUR 14.7 billion surplus in April (March 2025: EUR 23.5 billion surplus; April 2024: EUR 23.5 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend worsened, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a EUR 219.0 billion surplus in April, compared to the EUR 227.7 billion surplus in March.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects German trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 2 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for German trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our German trade projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of German trade forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.