Imports G&S in Germany
Germany - Imports Goods and Services
Economy contracts in Q1 at sharpest pace since 2009
The economy shrank 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, thus entering a technical recession for the first time in seven years and marking the sharpest contraction since the global financial crisis as lockdown measures at home and abroad weighed heavily on both domestic and foreign demand. Moreover, on a year-on-year price-adjusted basis, the economy shrank 1.9%.
On the domestic front, private consumption plunged (Q1: -3.2% quarter-on-quarter; Q4: 0.0% qoq), while fixed investment contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter, albeit at a softer pace than in the fourth quarter of last year (Q1: -0.2% qoq; Q4: -0.4% qoq)q)—a sharp fall in investment in machinery and equipment more than offset stronger construction investment. On the other hand, government consumption growth accelerated from 0.1% in the fourth quarter to 0.2% in the first quarter. Stock-building contributed positively to the economy, preventing a larger slide in the first quarter.
On the external front, lockdowns across the world dragged significantly on trade. Exports nosedived 3.1% quarter-on-quarter (Q4: -0.6% qoq), marking the steepest contraction in 11 years. Imports, meanwhile, dropped 1.6% qoq (Q4: +0.1% qoq) as domestic demand received a body blow. Despite falling imports, net exports subtracted 0.8 percentage points from GDP.
The economy is expected to contract at an even steeper pace in the second quarter despite a cautious easing of some measures at home. While the economy is expected to bounce back in the third quarter, the outlook remains uncertain and the German government is mulling over unleashing additional fiscal stimulus measures.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy contracting 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel forecasts GDP growth of 4.8%.
Germany - Imports G&S Data
|Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)||5.8||4.3||5.2||3.6||2.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||-0.19||0.41 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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July 9, 2020
In May, merchandise exports grew 9.0% month-on-month on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis, swinging from the steep 24.0% contraction in April.
July 7, 2020
Industrial production rose 7.8% calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis in May (April: -17.5% mom).
June 25, 2020
In early June, the German government announced fresh stimulus of EUR 130 billion to kickstart the economy, bringing the total fiscal stimulus up to around EUR 1.2 trillion (roughly equivalent to around 35% of 2019 GDP) which has been unleashed as part of efforts to buttress the economy against fallout from Covid-19. The new stimulus equals around 4% of GDP and encompasses numerous measures, including reducing the tax burden through temporarily lowering VATs until the end of this year, as well as further liquidity and loan support of around EUR 25 billion for SMEs through August, conditional on at least a 60% annual drop in sales in April and May.
June 25, 2020
Consumer confidence is expected to recover further from the Covid-19 shock at the opening of the third quarter; however, sentiment is forecast to remain pessimistic.
June 24, 2020
The business confidence indicator came in at 86.2 in June, up from May's 79.7.