Exports G&S in France
France - Exports Goods and Services
Economic growth decelerates in Q1
The French economy started 2018 on a weaker note than initially thought, according to the third estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter released by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 22 June. GDP grew 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, coming in below the 0.7% increase observed in the fourth quarter of 2017 and matching the print reported in the second estimate of GDP released on 30 May. Q1’s print marked the first quarter-on-quarter expansion below 0.5% since Q3 2016.
Q1’s print reflected a slowdown in the domestic economy. Growth in private consumption was disappointing, coming in at 0.1% in quarter-on-quarter terms (Q4: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter) due to a decline in purchasing power. The slowdown came despite above-average consumer confidence and declining unemployment. Fixed investment decelerated from the 0.9% increase recorded in Q4 to a seven-quarter low of 0.2%. Growth in investment was weighed down by a notable slowdown in corporate investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, government consumption expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter’s print. Due to disappointing private consumption and fixed investment, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth excluding inventory changes dropped from 0.4 percentage points in Q4 to 0.2 percentage points in Q1.
The external sector deducted a revised 0.1 percentage points from growth (previously reported: 0.0 percentage-point contribution), contrasting the 0.6 percentage-point contribution made in the fourth quarter of 2017. Dragged down by a decline in exports of transport equipment, growth in exports swung from a 2.4% expansion in Q4 to a 0.3% contraction in Q1. Finally, imports declined 0.1% in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.3% increase recorded in the fourth quarter and the 0.4% drop reported in the second GDP release for Q1. The deceleration in imports was partly led by weak private consumption and a decline in imports of intermediate goods that reflected muted industrial activity.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2019, panelists also forecast 2.0% growth.
France - Exports G&S Data
|Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)||2.1||3.4||4.4||1.5||4.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.57||0.46 %||Jul 17|
|Exchange Rate||1.17||0.65 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||5,423||-0.29 %||Jul 17|
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July 12, 2018
Revised data released by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 12 July matched preliminary figures and showed that consumer prices growth edged down from 0.4% month-on-month in May to a flat reading in June.
June 27, 2018
The consumer confidence indicator produced by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) decreased to 97 points in June, the lowest print in nearly two years (May: 99 points, previously reported: 100 points).
June 22, 2018
The IHS Markit flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.2 in May to 55.6 in June.
June 21, 2018
The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ (INSEE) business sentiment index for the manufacturing sector remained steady in June at May’s revised 110 points (previously reported: 109 points).
June 14, 2018
Revised data released by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 14 June showed that consumer price growth picked up from the 0.2% month-on-month increase recorded in April to a 0.4% rise in May.