Exports G&S in France
France - Exports Goods and Services
Domestic demand bounces back, propels growth in Q1
France’s economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, according to a comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 29 May. Although first-quarter growth was unaltered from the preliminary estimate, revisions to last year’s fourth quarter—which was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%—suggest that growth tapered somewhat at the outset of the year.
Household spending recovered somewhat in the aftermath of the ‘gilets jaunes’ political crisis (Q1: +0.4% qoq s.a.; Q4 2018: +0.3% qoq s.a.). Household investment, meanwhile, stagnated despite low interest rates, which offset rising business investment; overall, fixed investment slowed a bit (Q1: +0.5% qoq s.a.; Q4 2018: +0.6% qoq s.a.). For its part, government spending cooled in the quarter (Q1: +0.2% qoq s.a.; Q4 2018: +0.4% qoq s.a.).
Export growth slowed markedly (Q1: +0.4% qoq s.a.; Q4 2018: +2.0% qoq s.a.) on sluggish demand from the Eurozone’s major players. Import growth, meanwhile, picked up (Q1: +1.4% qoq s.a.; Q4 2018: +1.1% qoq s.a.) amid recovering domestic demand. Taken together, the external sector subtracted 0.3 percentage points from growth in the first quarter (Q4 2018: added 0.3 percentage points).
Commenting on the year ahead, Julien Manceaux, a senior economist at ING, noted:
“Looking at the first-quarter figures, it seems that domestic demand will still need some time to recover from the abnormal levels of anxiety recorded earlier in the year in consumer surveys. They still show a strong preference for savings and higher fears of unemployment than last year despite the resumption of job creation. Given the expected slowdown of the economic environment in Europe in 2019 and 2020, GDP growth should remain in these two years at a level close to its potential, 1.3%.”
FocusEconomics analysts expect recent momentum to carry through much of this year on the continued recovery of domestic demand. Concerns persist, however, over global-trade squabbles and a slowdown across the Eurozone. Analysts see growth at 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 1.3% in 2020.
France - Exports G&S Data
|Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)||2.1||3.3||4.5||1.8||4.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.03||0.46 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||5,552||-0.29 %||Jul 11|
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July 11, 2019
On 11 July, the Statistical Institute (INSEE) reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in June, inching up from May’s 0.1% increase, in large part due to a rebound in prices for services.
July 10, 2019
Seasonally-adjusted industrial output expanded 2.1% month-on-month in May, the highest reading in 30 months, on the heels of a revised 0.5% increase in April (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month s.a.).
July 3, 2019
The seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.7 points in June, up from 51.2 points in May and signaling the fastest private-sector activity growth in seven months. June’s uptick reflected the quickest expansion in services-sector activities since November 2018 and a modest recovery in manufacturing output.
June 28, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in June, edging up from May’s 0.1% outturn.
June 26, 2019
Consumer confidence entered positive territory in June, after rising for a sixth consecutive month.