Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in April

BCCR stays on hold: At its meeting on 10 April, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) unanimously decided to keep its policy interest rate at 4.00%, where it has stood since October 2024.

Global trade uncertainty calls for caution: Heightened uncertainty regarding trade policy and its economic implications prompted the BCCR to hold rates rather than resume monetary policy easing. Most other developments supported rate cuts: The Bank noted that inflation remained below the 2.0–4.0% target range in recent months. Additionally, it now expects inflation to return to target in Q1 2026, rather than in Q4 2025 as projected at the March meeting, due to a change in forecasts for oil and grain prices. Meanwhile, it highlighted that risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside and stem from lower-than-expected GDP growth in key trading partners and commodity prices.

Bank to deliver a small cut: The Central Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Our Consensus is for the BCCR to deliver a 25 basis points cut by end-2025. That said, a significant minority expects the Bank to stand pat throughout the year. This underscores a highly uncertain economic environment amid sustained geopolitical tensions. Lower-than-expected cuts by the U.S. Fed are an upside risk, while a stronger-than-anticipated colón is a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Costa Rican interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Costa Rican interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Costa Rican interest rate projections.

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