Merchandise exports beat expectations in September

Latest reading: In September, the trade balance was USD +90.4 billion, following a USD +102.3 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1174.0 billion. Exports rose 8.3% in year-on-year terms in September, following 1.3% growth in the prior month and beating market expectations. While sales to the U.S. continued to slump, this was more than offset by higher exports to other markets, particularly ASEAN and the EU. Imports rose 7.4% in year-on-year terms in September, coming on the back of a 1.3% increase in the prior month. This was driven by higher IT and commodities imports.

Panelist insight: On the near-term outlook, Nomura analysts said: “The rebound in September export growth was partly due to a low base. Month-on-month export growth was recorded at -1.6% in September 2024, well below its average of 2.2% in the preceding 10 years (2014-23). Month-on-month export growth was 2.3% in September 2025, largely in line with seasonal pattern. The later-than-usual mid-autumn festival might have also boosted production and export activity in September. The base effect for exports will be quite negative in October, and there could be some payback due to the holiday distortion. We expect export growth to slow in Q4, after an increase to 6.6% y-o-y in Q3 from 6.2% in Q2, due to a high base and rising trade barriers globally.”

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