Merchandise Trade Balance in China
The merchandise trade balance in China averaged USD 383 billion in the decade to 2024. The 2024 reading was USD 991 billion. For more information on trade, visit our dedicated page
China Trade Chart
Note: This chart displays Trade Balance (USD billion) for China from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
China Trade Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 524 | 670 | 838 | 822 | 991 |
Merchandise exports grow at a milder pace in May
Latest reading: Merchandise exports climbed 4.8% on an annual basis in May, on the heels of April’s 8.1% rise and slightly below market expectations. Exports to the U.S. plunged by over a third due to U.S. tariffs, though this was more than offset by higher exports to other locations; some goods bound for the U.S. were likely rerouted via third countries to avoid tariffs. Meanwhile, merchandise imports decreased 3.4% over the same month last year in May (April: -0.2% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 103.2 billion surplus in May (April 2025: USD 96.2 billion surplus; May 2024: USD 81.4 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 1127.1 billion surplus in May, compared to the USD 1105.3 billion surplus in April.
Panelist insight: On the latest data and outlook, Nomura analysts said: “The miss in exports is not a big surprise to us, as the substantial tariff swings in April-May make forecasting monthly trade data challenging. We have been stressing that the boost from the US tariff rollback should be more significant in June, as it might take a couple of weeks to restore the logistics network that was disrupted by what had nearly become a US-China trade embargo. The sharp recovery in container bookings and freight rates indicate an incoming rebound in US-bound exports in June. However, significant payback is likely to surface after the 90-day truce period ends in mid-August.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chinese trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Chinese trade.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chinese trade projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chinese trade forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global Trade News
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Japan: Exports shrink in May Latest reading: Yen-denominated merchandise exports shrank annually for the first time since September in May, declining 1.7%. This contrasted April’s... -
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India: Merchandise exports drop in May Latest reading: Merchandise exports decreased 2.2% annually in May, contrasting April’s 9.0% increase. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 1.7% over the...