Inventories flatter GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP bounced back 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter...
Economic Growth in Brazil
Brazil's GDP growth over the last decade was characterized by economic turbulence and modest recoveries. The country entered a severe recession in 2015-2016, driven by political instability and declining commodity prices. Subsequent years saw gradual recovery, although growth remained sluggish. The COVID-19 pandemic brought another downturn in 2020, but the economy showed resilience in the following years, partly due to strong commodity exports and fiscal stimulus. However, a lack of structural reforms and a sclerotic public sector continue to hold back economic potential. The Brazilian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, Brazil's real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,477 | 1,670 | 1,952 | 2,191 | 2,180 |
| GDP (BRL bn) | 7,610 | 9,012 | 10,080 | 10,943 | 11,745 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.0 | 18.4 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 7.3 |
High interest rates stop economy in its tracks in Q4
Tight monetary policy halts economic growth: The Brazilian economy decelerated sharply at the close of 2024, with GDP growth falling to 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of the year from a downwardly revised 0.7% in the third quarter. The print was the slowest expansion since Q3 2023 and missed market expectations, potentially prompting the Central Bank to hike less sharply in the coming quarters. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed to 3.6% in Q4 from the previous period's 4.0% expansion, and also undershot market projections. Accordingly, overall GDP growth in 2024 accelerated to 3.4% (2023: +3.2%), the strongest rise since 2011—bar 2021’s post-pandemic rebound.
Downturn was broad-based: The quarterly deceleration was broad-based and largely reflected higher inflation and tighter monetary policy cooling the economy. Domestically, household spending swung to a 1.0% seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter contraction in Q4 (Q3: +1.3% s.a. qoq), marking the worst result since Q2 2021; moreover, fixed investment growth fell to 0.4% (Q3: +2.3% s.a. qoq), marking the worst result since Q3 2023. Meanwhile, government spending growth ebbed to 0.6% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services declined at a quicker pace of 1.3% (Q3: -0.7% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services contracted 0.1% in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% s.a. qoq), marking the sharpest decline since Q1 2023.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 52 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Brazilian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
France: Economy rebounds in Q1 but remains soft -
Taiwan: Economy records quickest upturn since Q1 2024 in the first quarter GDP reading: GDP growth improved to 5.4% year on year in the first quarter, from 2.9% in the fourth quarter... -
Korea: GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2022 in the first quarter GDP reading: The economy contracted 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter’s... -
Malaysia: GDP growth continues to cool in Q1 2025 Q1 marks the third consecutive deceleration: Advanced estimates show that GDP growth moderated to 4.4% year on year in the... -
Malaysia: GDP growth records fastest upturn since Q1 2023 in the first quarter Q1 growth records the best result in 2 years: A preliminary report shows that GDP growth increased to 4.2% year... -
China: GDP growth beats expectations in Q1 Temporary factors boost output: GDP growth clocked 5.4% year on year in Q1 2025, matching the prior quarter’s reading and... -
Singapore: GDP growth falls more than expected in the first quarter Economy tallies an unpleasant start to 2025: According to an advance estimate, GDP growth waned to 3.8% year on year...