GDP growth accelerates in Q1

Economic growth doubles in Q1: According to a preliminary release, GDP growth rose to 0.4% on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1 2025 (Q4 2024: +0.2% s.a. qoq), hitting a one-year high. On an annual basis, economic growth remained stable at Q4’s level in Q1, coming in at 1.1% in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.

Broad-based improvement in Q1: Early estimates show that the faster quarterly expansion was primarily due to quicker growth in the construction and services sectors; the former rose 0.9% (Q4 2024: +0.7% s.a. qoq), and the latter 0.4% (Q4 2024: +0.1% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, the industrial sector flatlined throughout the first three months of the year, improving from Q4’s 0.2% decline.

GDP growth to stabilize: Our panelists expect sequential GDP growth to slow down slightly in Q2–Q3 from Q1, and to pick up some momentum at the close of the year. Overall in 2025, GDP growth will remain close to 2024 levels, supported by looser financial conditions in the Euro area and continued domestic wage growth stimulating demand. Further deteriorations in consumer sentiment pose a downside risk, while the evolution of EU–U.S. trade relations should be monitored as Belgium’s export-oriented economy would suffer a severe blow from the return of sector-specific tariffs.

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