Economic Growth in Argentina
Argentina's GDP growth over the last decade was highly volatile, marked by economic recessions and brief recoveries. The economy faced significant contractions, particularly during periods of political uncertainty and fiscal imbalances. Inflation and currency devaluation further hampered growth, with a notable recession in 2018-2019. Despite some recovery attempts, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic downturn. In 2023, Argentina had slipped back into contraction, weighed on by soaring inflation and drought crimping agricultural production. This recession continued into H1 2024, but by end-2024 the economy was in recovery mode as inflation and interest rates declined. In Argentina, the economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.4% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Argentina GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Argentina from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Argentina GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -9.9 | 10.4 | 5.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 |
GDP (USD bn) | 385 | 486 | 632 | 647 | 633 |
GDP (ARS bn) | 27,210 | 46,219 | 82,653 | 191,405 | 579,246 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 26.2 | 69.9 | 78.8 | 131.6 | 202.6 |
GDP growth slows in Q4 but remains upbeat
GDP reading: GDP growth slowed to 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the fourth quarter, from 4.3% in the third quarter. A slowdown was always going to happen given the unsustainably fast Q3 growth figure, but Q4’s reading was still elevated by historical standards. Lower inflation and interest rates plus liberalizing reforms boosted the economy. On an annual basis, economic activity rebounded 2.1% in Q4, contrasting the previous period's 2.0% fall and marking the best result since Q3 2022.
Drivers: Private consumption increased 3.2% quarter on quarter in Q4, which was below the third quarter's 4.4% expansion. Public consumption growth moderated to 0.8% in Q4 (Q3: +1.7% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated to 11.3% in Q4, following the 10.3% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth improved to 7.7% in Q4 (Q3: +3.5% s.a. qoq). In addition, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 12.9% in Q4 (Q3: +9.7% s.a. qoq).
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella commented on past performance and the outlook: “A significant fiscal adjustment, tight capital, financial and FX controls, an upward adjustment of lagging regulated prices, and a spike in inflation, were all drags on growth in 2024, particularly during the first half of the year. Were it not for a much better harvest relative to 2023, the adjustment this year would have likely been deeper. That said, the economy had a strong recovery in the second half of the year, and we expect the positive growth momentum to continue in the quarters ahead.” Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, with upside risks due to a high carryover and the expected improvement of demand-side components. On the demand side, the recovery in real wages and lower borrowing rates are likely to support private consumption.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Argentine GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 58 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Argentine GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Argentine GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Argentine GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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