Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in July

Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 17–18 July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Angola (BNA) decided to maintain the BNA Rate at 19.50%. This was the seventh consecutive hold since July 2024, with rates remaining at one of the highest levels in recent years.

Global uncertainty and elevated inflation drive the hold: Continued geopolitical and global trade uncertainty—which threatens the GDP growth outlook—dissuaded the Bank from raising rates. Meanwhile, despite inflation’s ongoing downtrend due to a greater supply of consumer goods and kwanza stability, price pressures remained well above pre-pandemic levels and among the highest in the region, thus deterring the BNA from cutting rates.

Policy outlook: The Central Bank did not provide explicit forward guidance. Half of our panelists expect the BNA to stand pat by end-2025, while the other half see interest rate cuts ranging from 50 to 150 basis points. The Bank will reconvene on 18–19 September.

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