Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Vietnam
The Vietnamese economy recorded average real GDP growth of 6.1% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, Vietnam's real GDP growth was 8.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Vietnam GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Vietnam from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Vietnam GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.9 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 7.1 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 346 | 370 | 411 | 433 | 459 |
| GDP (VND tn) | 8,044 | 8,487 | 9,621 | 10,320 | 11,439 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | 5.5 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 10.8 |
Q1 records slowest increase in GDP in a year
GDP growth eases slightly: GDP growth moderated to 6.9% year on year in the first quarter, from 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking the slowest growth since Q1 2024. This reading was slightly lower than markets had expected as industrial and services activity decelerated.
Agriculture accelerates while services and industry slow: The industrial sector grew 7.4% annually in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in a year and falling short of the previous quarter’s 8.4% growth. The services sector also lost steam, growing 7.7% in Q1 (Q4: +8.2% yoy). On the other hand, the agricultural sector expanded 3.7% in Q1, following the previous quarter’s 3.0% increase.
Economic growth to undershoot government’s target: Our Consensus sees growth slowing from Q1 in the coming quarters and falling short of the official 8.0% target in 2025 as a whole. Our panelists also see full-year economic growth easing from 2024’s level, largely due to weaker exports momentum after the U.S. announced a 10% tariff for Vietnamese exports in early April—exports constitute 90% of Vietnam’s GDP. An additional 36 percentage points of reciprocal tariffs—now paused by the U.S.—pose a downside risk to GDP growth.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Vietnamese GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Vietnamese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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