Economic Growth in Vietnam
Vietnam's economy recorded an average growth rate of 6.2% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 4.9% average for ASEAN. In 2024, real GDP growth was 7.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Vietnam GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Vietnam from 2025 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Vietnam GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.9 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 7.1 |
GDP (USD bn) | 346 | 370 | 411 | 433 | 459 |
GDP (VND tn) | 8,044 | 8,487 | 9,621 | 10,320 | 11,512 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.4 | 5.5 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 11.5 |
Economic growth hits a two-year high in Q2
GDP growth overshoots market expectations: Vietnam’s economy continued to gallop ahead in Q2, with GDP surging 8.0% annually (Q1: +7.0% yoy), the fastest growth in two years and one of the sharpest rates of expansion globally. The reading exceeded market expectations and matched the government’s annual target of 8.0%.
All areas of the economy improve: The industrial and services sectors—which account for roughly 40% of GDP each—helped drive the upturn. Growth of the former accelerated to 9.0% (Q1: +7.6% yoy), and of the latter to 8.5% (Q1: +7.8% yoy). The industrial sector was bolstered by a strong external sector as firms front-loaded sales ahead of U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs; merchandise exports grew by more than 20% in Q2, almost doubling Q1’s reading. In addition, agricultural sector growth picked up to 3.9% in Q2 (Q1: +3.8% yoy).
Panelists turn less pessimistic: Our Consensus has been repeatedly cut since January amid protectionism in the U.S., which is Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for 30% of Vietnam's exports in 2024. In recent weeks, positive news regarding a trade deal with Trump’s administration has prompted our panelists to become slightly less pessimistic. That said, Vietnam’s GDP growth is still seen below the government’s 8.0% target in 2025 as a whole; front-loading of exports will wane later this year. Higher uncertainty in the property market is a downside risk to GDP growth, and U.S. trade policy is key to track.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Suan Teck Kin, analyst at United Overseas Bank, stated: “The latest development on the trade negotiations with the US appears promising for Vietnam, following US President Trump’s announcement of a 20% tariff on Vietnam’s imports to the US with a 40% tariff on transshipments. We see the worst of the tensions has past and are factoring in a modest pace of exports growth in 2025. Accordingly, we’re revising higher our forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025.” On a similar note, Chua Han Teng, analyst at DBS Bank, stated: “While we anticipate slower and volatile growth in 2H25 due to still-high global trade frictions, the surprisingly robust performance in 1H25 warrants an upward revision of our 2025 real GDP growth forecast […]. However, uncertainty remains regarding the interpretation of transshipment goods that will face 40% US tariffs.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 27 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Vietnamese GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Vietnamese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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