Economic Growth in United States
The United States saw robust GDP growth from 2013 to 2019, driven by strong consumer spending and technological innovation. Growth was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, leading to a sharp but brief recession. The subsequent recovery in 2021-2024 was rapid, fueled by strong growth in consumption and exports plus a booming tech industry. The economy grew above 2% in the last four years, easily outpacing the G7 average.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in United States was 2.80%, compared to 2.52% in 2014 and 2.89% in 2023. It averaged 2.49% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
United States GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for United States from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
United States GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
GDP (USD bn) | 21,354 | 23,681 | 26,007 | 27,721 | 29,185 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -0.9 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 5.3 |
Economy rebounds in Q2
GDP reading: GDP rebounded 3.0% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the second quarter, contrasting the 0.5% contraction recorded in the first quarter and beating market expectations. The rebound was driven by improvements in private and government spending plus a slump in imports. In contrast, an inventory drawdown and stagnant fixed investment acted as a drag.
Drivers: Household spending growth improved to 1.4% SAAR in Q2 from a 0.5% expansion in Q1. Public spending bounced back, growing 0.4% in Q2 (Q1: -0.6% SAAR). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth waned to 0.4% in Q2, following 7.6% growth in the prior quarter. Exports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.8% in Q2 (Q1: +0.4% SAAR). In addition, imports of goods and services plunged 30.3% in Q2 (Q1: +38.0% SAAR).
GDP outlook: Economic growth is forecast to slow in H2 2025 due to fallout from the implementation of “reciprocal” tariffs on multiple trading partners, though the economy is expected to dodge recession.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said: “Headline GDP growth for the second quarter overstated the degree of strength in the U.S. economy. An unwinding of Q1's tariff front-running resulted in imports contracting by the largest amount (outside of the pandemic) since the height of the global financial crisis, resulting in a massive positive contribution to GDP. Once the effects of net trade, inventories and government were removed, sales to private domestic purchasers, expanded by just 1.2% or its slowest rate of growth in 2.5 years. […] With inflationary pressures likely to heat-up over the coming months alongside some expected softening in the labor market, the backdrop for consumer spending is looking increasingly fragile. Our current GDP tracking has the economy expanding by around 1.0% in Q3.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 72 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for American GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American GDP projections.
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