National Bank of Romania leaves rates unchanged again in October

NBR stands pat: At its meeting on 8 October, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) decided to keep its policy rate at 6.50% for the ninth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. The rate remains comfortably above the pre-pandemic decade average of around 3.50%.

High inflation drives the hold: The Central Bank’s decision to hold was justified by still-high inflation—inflation has come in above the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target through September, bolstered by a recent VAT hike and the expiry of an electricity price cap in July.

Monetary policy easing to resume in 2026: The Bank did not provide forward guidance on future monetary policy decisions. All but two of our panelists see rates remaining on hold through year-end, with rate cuts expected to resume next year. The impact of the fiscal consolidation package, U.S. tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East on domestic inflation and GDP growth are key factors to monitor. The Bank will reconvene on 12 November.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Romanian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Romanian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Romanian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Romanian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.