NBR Reference Rate in Romania
The NBR Reference Rate ended 2022 at 6.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value, and also up from the rate of 4.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Romania Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Romania from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Romania Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBR Reference Rate (%, eop) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 6.50 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 3.08 | 5.26 | 8.31 | 6.35 | 7.48 |
National Bank of Romania stands pat in February
Hold matches expectations: At its meeting on 14 February, the National Bank of Romania decided to maintain its monetary policy rate at 6.50%, its lending (Lombard) facility rate at 7.50% and its deposit facility rate at 5.50%. The decision marked the fourth consecutive hold and had been priced in by both the market and our panelists.
Higher-than-anticipated price pressures drive decision: The Central Bank's decision to stand pat rather than cut came on the back of an upside surprise in inflation in the last three months of 2024 amid accelerating fuel and food prices; the latter were fanned by severe drought in the summer. Moreover, the NBR forecasts inflation to be highly volatile in H1 2025 and to remain above the 1.5–3.5% target through H2. That said, the Bank noted that rising fiscal uncertainty—amid the European Commission's excessive deficit procedure—and the increasingly unstable geopolitical scenario could hamper economic growth.
Uncertainty looms regarding future decisions: The NBR provided no explicit forward guidance. However, the ECB’s easing cycle and the heightened risk of weaker economic performance amid fiscal consolidation have pushed our panelists to forecast around 75 basis points of additional rate cuts in 2025. That said, the spread is large at 25–175 basis points and, given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the domestic and international political scenario, roughly half of our panelists expect the easing cycle to be delayed to H2. The Bank will reconvene on 7 April.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Stefan Posea and Valentin Tataru stated: “We continue to expect two rate cuts amounting to 50bp from the NBR this year but starting from the second half of the year at the earliest. […] Overall, we think that even if the Bank’s negative scenarios on private consumption and aggregate demand were to materialise, as long as fiscal uncertainty persists, the bar for further rate cuts will remain quite high.” Ioana Birlan, analyst at Erste Bank, has a hawkish view: “Weaker growth numbers and market expectations for the ECB rate path could be arguments for the doves at the next meetings. In the decision-making process, these dovish calls are likely to be outweighed by fiscal concerns, increased FX vulnerability due to elevated risk premia and sovereign rating risks, as well as high and mostly upside inflation forecast uncertainties.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Romanian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Romanian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Romanian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Romanian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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