Economic Growth in Poland
Poland's economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.7% in the decade to 2022, above the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 5.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Poland GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Poland from 2018 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Poland GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
GDP (USD bn) | 606 | 689 | 695 | 813 | 915 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 532 | 583 | 662 | 752 | 846 |
GDP (PLN bn) | 2,363 | 2,662 | 3,101 | 3,415 | 3,641 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.1 | 12.6 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 6.6 |
GDP growth gains momentum in the fourth quarter
Annual GDP growth steps on the gas: According to a preliminary estimate, annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% in the final quarter of 2024 from 2.7% in the third quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth also gathered momentum, accelerating to 1.3% in Q4, following the previous quarter's 0.1% increase. In 2024 as a whole, the economy expanded 2.9%, up notably from 2023’s 0.1% rise.
Household consumption spearheads acceleration: Annual private consumption growth picked up to 3.5% in Q4 compared to Q3’s 0.3% rise. Fixed investment growth also accelerated to 1.3% in Q4, contrasting the 0.1% expansion logged in the previous quarter. However, public consumption growth ticked down to 3.0% in Q4 (Q3: +4.5% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services rebounded, growing 0.5% in Q4 (Q3: -0.7% yoy). However, imports of goods and services growth strengthened to 3.3% in Q4 (Q3: +1.9% yoy).
Economic growth to improve further in 2025: The economy should gain further speed in 2025. Inflows of EU funds and rising demand from the Euro area will boost growth in fixed investment and exports. Additionally, household spending will remain resilient, despite higher inflation and elevated interest rates for most of the year. Downside risks include delayed reform progress, a trade war between the EU and the U.S. and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “Although our growth forecasts for most of Poland's key trade partners in western Europe remain weak, the extension of the household electricity price cap will ensure strong household demand in Poland. Fiscal spending will remain strong, while another major driver of growth in 2025 will be a rebound in investment spending, at 5.9%. Poland will be better placed to draw down its EU budget allocation in 2025 following the unblocking of funds, leading to a boom in investment. A potential upside risk stems from a possible bump in trade flows as companies prepare for higher tariffs under the Trump administration by front-loading purchases.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 42 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Polish GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
United Kingdom: GDP growth records best result since Q1 2024 in the first quarter Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis... -
Bulgaria: GDP growth edges down in the first quarter but remains robust by regional standards GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth waned to 3.1% year on year in the first quarter from... -
Colombia: Economy expands at the fastest pace in over two years in Q1 Faster-than-expected expansion remains below trend: The economy started the year with a spring in its step, with GDP growth accelerating... -
Kazakhstan: Economy posts best first-quarter reading in over a decade in Q1 GDP growth flies past trend: The economy rallied at the outset of 2025, expanding 5.6% in the first quarter and... -
Hong Kong: Economy records fastest growth since Q4 2023 in the first quarter GDP reading: GDP growth sped up to 3.1% year on year in the first quarter from 2.5% in the fourth... -
Portugal: Growth eludes the Portuguese economy in Q1 Portugal’s economy switches to be the Euro area’s worst performer: According to a preliminary reading, the economy lost its footing... -
Canada: Economic activity drops in February GDP reading: GDP slid 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January’s 0.4% increase. February’s figure was...