Official Cash Rate in New Zealand
The Official Cash Rate ended 2022 at 4.25%, up from the 0.75% end-2021 value and higher than the reading of 2.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Asia-Pacific was 3.70% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
New Zealand Interest Rate Chart
New Zealand Interest Rate Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Official Cash Rate (%, eop) | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 4.25 |
90-Day Bank Bill (%, eop) | 1.98 | 1.23 | 0.26 | 0.91 | 4.53 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 2.38 | 1.65 | 0.99 | 2.37 | 4.48 |
RBNZ stands pat in November
At its 29 November meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%.
The Bank decided to stand pat as it estimated that previous monetary policy tightening was already cooling demand dynamics and, therefore, inflationary pressures. That said, the RBNZ warned that “inflation remains too high, and the Committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary pressures”.
Looking forward, the Bank stated that “OCR will need to stay restrictive, so demand growth remains subdued, and inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target range”. The vast majority of our panelists expect rate cuts for next year, as inflation moderates further from current levels. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 28 February.
Commenting on the outlook, Lee Sue Ann, economist at UOB, stated: “Tighter fiscal policy will further weigh on growth, though most fiscal measures will likely be announced only during the May 2024 budget, and implementation likely to take some time. Nonetheless, we think the RBNZ will have to cut rates sooner than its own projections imply”.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects New Zealand interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for New Zealand interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our New Zealand interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of New Zealand interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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