Egypt Interest Rate

Central Bank of Egypt holds rates in May

CBE maintains pause on easing cycle: At its meeting on 21 May, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to keep its key policy rates unchanged, with the overnight deposit rate remaining at 19.00%. This followed 825 basis points of cuts from April 2025 to February 2026.

Upside inflation risks prompt hold: The Bank’s decision to hold rates rather than cut was partly driven the likelihood that the Iran war will push up domestic inflation going forward despite consumer price growth easing in April. Meanwhile, a hike was off the cards as GDP growth slowed in January–March and is likely decelerating further in April–June. Given these combined factors and the uncertain outlook, the Bank chose to be prudent and hold the rate steady once more.

Fewer panelists expect reductions ahead: The CBE gave no explicit guidance on future rate moves. Our Consensus for the CBE’s policy rates has increased in recent months as a result of the Iran energy shock. Our panel is now broadly split between those that see the Bank cutting rates to support GDP growth and those that see it on hold to contain inflation. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 9 July.

Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs are one of our panelists that are projecting monetary tightening ahead: “We see upside risks to Egypt's medium-term inflation outlook, and our updated inflation forecast is broadly in line with the CBE's projections. We think that this unfavourable inflation outlook points to a likely 200bp of rate hikes in Q3 this [calendar] year in order to maintain a positive real rate buffer, bringing the policy rate to 21%.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Egyptian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Egyptian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Egyptian interest rate projections.

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