Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

Economic activity appeared to gain further steam in the third quarter, following the second quarter’s acceleration. Robust industrial production likely spearheaded the expansion in Q3, with output quickening in January–September compared to January–June on upbeat manufacturing, while double-digit growth in the construction sector seemingly further boosted the overall expansion. In turn, exports accelerated in January–August on increased shipments of gold and sustained sales of oil. Meanwhile, strong retail sale growth in the same period point at upbeat consumption, although higher inflation likely limited gains. In politics, the government announced plans in October to clean up non-performing loans in the state-dominated banking sector as part of its wider privatization drive.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to accelerate next year, as ongoing economic reforms and an improving business climate boost both household spending and fixed investment. However, fiscal tightening measures required by the IMF-backed reform plan risks sparking social unrest, as the government moves to privatize state-owned enterprises which employ a large part of the population. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 5.7% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2021.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

Population (million)30.030.531.031.632.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9232,0702,1492,1241,839
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4801,5121,9371,9211,605
GDP (USD bn)57.763.166.767.159.1
GDP (EUR bn)44.446.160.160.651.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.710.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0010.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8103,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.6-12.6-10.5-2.4-2.2
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)18.419.015.911.012.4
Exports (annual variation in %)38.9-17.0-16.761.317.5
Imports (annual variation in %)38.43.4-16.6-30.412.1
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.521.122.221.826.4

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Uzbekistan Facts

Exchange Rate9,3850.0 %Sep 04

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