Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Recent data showed that the economy decelerated in the third quarter. Cumulative GDP growth moderated from a 7.0% annual increase in Q2 to 5.3% in Q3 as growth was dragged down by a slowdown in key sectors including agriculture, construction and industry. The currency liberalization in September has resulted in higher prices for inputs and outputs, impacting both producers and consumers. Despite its adverse immediate impact, the measure was applauded by the IMF in its most recent assessment of the economy in November. The Fund commented that further reforms should now target the liberalization of state-owned enterprises and the removal of price controls to further improve the country’s macroeconomic framework and attract FDI.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Higher prices for commodities will boost economic growth in the next two years, although the impact of market-oriented reforms will weigh on GDP growth in the short term. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 6.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel sees the economy expanding 6.1%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

Population (million)29.730.230.631.031.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7521,8902,0602,1532,145
GDP per capita (EUR)1,3811,4541,5041,9401,939
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.011.511.56.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)  
Money (annual variation of M1 in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.911.
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0010.009.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9842,2022,4222,8103,218
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8892,0922,3082,5702,965
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,6163,0342,9313,0523,394
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,4292,7803,0642,8523,279
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-6.2-7.9-5.3-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)2.432.7-12.8-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)10.717.05.1-19.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)17.518.721.122.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

Exchange Rate8,0960.0 %Dec 06

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