Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Growth clocked in at 5.3% in annual terms in Q1 2019, spearheaded by industrial sector output growth which was powered by upbeat manufacturing activity. In addition, the services, agriculture and construction sectors strengthened in the quarter. Turning to Q2, momentum appears to have carried over from Q1. Industrial output expanded sturdily in April, propped up by mining and quarrying, and manufacturing output. Similarly, the construction and services sectors expanded robustly at the beginning of Q2. Booming demand from China and Kazakhstan also propelled the external sector in April. Meanwhile, on 15 May, Uzbekistan declared the mineral-rich region of Navoi—the country’s largest region—a free economic zone, to spur foreign investment.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain upbeat this year on the back of solid investment activity and robust household consumption growth, which will continue to benefit from ongoing economic reforms and an improving business climate. Excessive domestic credit growth, banking sector inefficiencies and still-high inflation cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 5.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1061,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.710.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0010.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8103,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.810.810.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,5190.0 %Jun 13

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