Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

Covid-19 will have further weighed on the economy in the second quarter after GDP growth slowed to 4.1% in the first quarter as the effects of the pandemic began to bite (2019: +5.6% year-on-year). Data on retail turnover shows private consumption likely deteriorated markedly in Q2 amid social distancing measures. Moreover, industrial production was likely downbeat, as suggested by April and May readings. While May’s data shows signs of recovery from April, as the government began lifting lockdown measures in May, the government was forced to impose new restrictions at end-June on a steady rise in Covid-19 infections. A second outbreak and subsequent reestablishment of further restrictions pose downside risks to economic activity in Q3.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic and related measures will dent growth this year. Internally, demand will likely be muted amid social-distancing measures and weaker remittance inflows. On the external front, feeble external demand and rising uncertainty will keep exports subdued. Looking forward, risks emerge from the consequences of a possible second outbreak. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 0.8% in 2020, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 5.7% in 2021.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.14.55.45.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.1-0.2-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.52.5-7.1-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.50.31.5-3.6-3.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-44.012.147.516.2
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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