Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy seems to have kicked off this year on a solid footing, following a healthy industrial sector-led expansion last year. Upbeat industrial production growth carried over into January, on the back of robust output growth in the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors. In addition, retail trade continued to grow in January, pointing to sustained consumer demand at the beginning of the year. On the external front, strong export growth also carried over from 2018, amid soaring demand from China and Russia. Meanwhile, on 13 February, Moody’s assigned Uzbekistan a B1 sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. On the same day, and for the first time in its history, Uzbekistan sold USD 1.0 billion of Eurobonds.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth should remain strong this year, on the back of upbeat public spending and robust investment growth against the backdrop of ongoing reforms and improving business conditions. The reform process remains both a key upside and downside risk to the outlook as the government’s policy agenda is put to the test. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 5.0% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1061,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.710.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0010.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8103,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.810.810.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,3780.0 %Mar 20

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