Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

Continuing on its reform path, the government aims to achieve full currency convertibility by 2019 after lifting of currency exchange controls last month. The move will likely encourage private business and foreign investment, which has been lagging significantly compared to regional peers. To further improve the business environment, the government started preparations to obtain a sovereign credit rating that would enable Uzbek banks and companies to raise funds in global financial markets. The liberalization of exports adds to the prospect of foreign currency flowing into the country. Along the same reformist lines, the Central Bank has been instructed to develop an inflation targeting framework to be approved by 1 March 2018.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)29.730.230.631.031.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7521,8902,0602,1532,145
GDP per capita (EUR)1,3811,4541,5041,9401,939
GDP (USD bn)52.157.263.066.767.2
GDP (EUR bn)41.144.046.060.160.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.28.08.18.17.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.011.511.56.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)26.26.93.56.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.40.30.20.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.67.78.89.4-  
Money (annual variation of M1 in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.911.79.18.58.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0010.009.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9842,2022,4222,8103,218
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8892,0922,3082,5702,965
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,6163,0342,9313,0523,394
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,4292,7803,0642,8523,279
Current Account (% of GDP)1.82.90.70.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.91.60.50.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-6.2-7.9-5.3-  
Exports (USD billion)5.97.96.96.5-  
Imports (USD billion)12.014.014.711.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)2.432.7-12.8-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)10.717.05.1-19.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)17.518.721.122.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,0590.08 %Oct 16
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 16

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Uzbekistan Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

Economic reforms should improve macroeconomic fundamentals and attract foreign investment. The outlook for the economy in the short term, however, depends on the evolution of commodities prices. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 6.4% in 2017. In 2018, the panel sees the economy expanding 6.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

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