Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

GDP rose at a softer average pace compared to the previous quarter in Q1, amid a broad-based slowdown. Activity in the mining sector ground to a near-halt in Q1, leading the overall downturn, with the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and retail trade sectors also posting weaker growth. More positively, merchandise exports boomed in the quarter, seemingly thanks to higher prices for the country’s top export commodities, including copper, cotton, gold and fuels. Moving to the second quarter, the war in Ukraine is likely increasingly constraining economic activity. With the Russian economy devasted by international sanctions, Uzbekistan is set to bear the brunt of reduced trade flows and shrinking remittances from its key economic partner. Soaring prices and supply chain disruptions also bode ill for domestic demand.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to slow this year, amid a fading base effect and the fallout from the war in Ukraine—Uzbekistan has strong economic ties to Russia with remittances a major source of private spending. Nevertheless, business-friendly reforms should encourage investment while higher global commodity prices bode well for the external sector, thus keeping growth fairly sturdy. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.1% in 2022, which is down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the economy is seen growing 5.3%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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