Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

GDP growth lost momentum in Q1. Mining led the slowdown, with growth in the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and retail sectors also slowing. On the other hand, export revenue was boosted by higher prices for such key commodities as gold, cotton and natural gas. Moreover, at 5.8%, the rate of GDP expansion was likely well above the CIS regional average. Q2 data on industrial output and the retail, services and construction sectors suggest ongoing robust domestic momentum. However, sanctions on Russia and Covid-19 lockdowns in China are likely dampening the external sector, given Uzbekistan’s close trade links with both countries. In politics, China recently pledged USD 37 million of financial assistance to Uzbekistan in a sign of warming ties between the countries.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to slow this year due to the war in Ukraine—remittances from Russia are a major source of private spending—and Covid-19 restrictions in China. On the other hand, business-friendly reforms should encourage investment, while elevated commodity prices will remain a significant tailwind. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 3.9% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the economy is seen growing 5.2%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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