Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

Annual growth slowed to 4.1% in January–March, from 5.6% in 2019, as the Covid-19 pandemic weighed on the economy at the end of March. Industrial production lost pace as a result of falling hydrocarbon output, while exports collapsed on a slump in Chinese demand. In addition, tight lockdown restrictions enacted by the government in late March took a toll on retail sales growth for January–March, while also leading to a significant decline in the number of new small businesses created compared to a year ago. The brunt of the health crisis is likely to hit the economy in April, however, as prolonged social distancing hammers activity. Meanwhile, on 29 April, the government lifted some travel restrictions for companies working in the agricultural sector to avoid further financial losses.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The economy is set to lose significant traction this year as the health crisis takes its toll. Private consumption growth will likely slow amid falling remittance inflows, while depressed risk appetite will restrain fixed investment through lower FDI. Moreover, weak demand from China and Russia should weigh on exports. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 2.7% in 2020, which is down 1.0 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 6.1% in 2021.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)30.531.031.632.132.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,0702,1492,1241,8391,547
GDP per capita (EUR)1,5121,9371,9211,6051,310
GDP (USD bn)63.166.767.159.150.4
GDP (EUR bn)46.160.160.651.642.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.27.46.14.55.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.911.67.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.40.816.47.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.20.10.00.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.87.18.620.220.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.18.58.813.917.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.009.009.0014.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,4222,8103,2188,1208,340
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,3082,5702,9655,1238,070
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,9313,0523,3949,7519,533
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)3,0642,8523,2795,8699,531
Current Account (% of GDP)1.70.60.52.5-7.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.10.50.31.5-3.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.6-11.6-2.4-2.2-6.9
Exports (USD billion)6.45.48.610.211.4
Imports (USD billion)19.017.011.012.418.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.0-16.260.717.512.0
Imports (annual variation in %)3.4-16.5-34.912.147.5
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.121.121.826.434.3

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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