Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

GDP grew 7.4% in Q3, slightly down from Q2’s 8.8% expansion. Important subsectors such as manufacturing, and transportation and storage—which together account for over 20% of GDP—lost significant steam. However, agricultural production, and mining and construction output grew at faster paces, preventing a more pronounced slowdown. In addition, growth in services subsectors such as wholesale and retail trade also accelerated in the period. Moving onto Q4, falling numbers of new Covid-19 cases should provide a supportive framework for continued economic growth. In other news, presidential elections held on 24 October saw incumbent Mirziyovev re-elected with 80% of the votes. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings recently affirmed the country’s credit rating at ‘BB-’ with a stable outlook, citing strong economic growth but noting institutional weaknesses.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

After gaining pace in 2021, economic growth should remain upbeat in 2022. Reforms to foster a friendlier business environment are set to boost capital spending, with privatization policies opening the local market to international investment. Meanwhile, private consumption should continue to gain ground as restrictions ease, although the slow vaccine rollout poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the economy is seen growing 5.5%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.14.55.45.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.1-0.2-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.52.5-7.1-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.50.31.5-3.6-3.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-44.012.147.516.2
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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