Uzbekistan Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020The economy stagnated in H1 on the fallout from the pandemic and its related restrictive measures implemented in March. Industrial activity contracted as the mining sector collapsed, while service activities were subdued by the national lockdown. Moving to Q3, the second lockdown imposed in early July likely restrained the recovery. August data suggests that industrial production remained downbeat as mining output fell again, while services activity lost steam amid weakness in the transport and accommodation and food sectors. More positively, exports recovered in August on the easing of lockdowns abroad, while construction activity picked up in the same month. In other news, the IMF concluded a staff visit in 21 September. In its assessment, the Fund praised the fiscal measures adopted in response to the pandemic, but encouraged authorities to press ahead with structural reforms.
Uzbekistan Economic GrowthThe Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures will bite into growth this year. On the external front, feeble demand and uncertainty will keep exports subdued. However, 2021 should see some recovery as external demand normalizes. Volatile commodity prices and a further wave of infections bringing more restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 0.2% in 2020 and 5.3% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.
Uzbekistan Economy Data
5 years of Uzbekistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||9,516||0.0 %||Dec 31|
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