Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

Economic growth accelerated to 5.6% in 2019 from 5.4% in 2018. More robust activity in the construction sector buttressed the pick-up, with sturdier agricultural output further supporting the overall expansion. That said, industrial output eased last year due to declining mining output. Turning to 2020, the economy likely set off to a slow start. Industrial production moderated in January amid contractions in the mining and water supply sectors, while merchandise exports fell as the coronavirus outbreak hampered Chinese demand. On the expenditure side, slower retail sales growth at the outset of the year hint that private consumption moderated, while softer construction activity bodes ill for fixed investment growth. Meanwhile, on 19 February, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and his Turkish counterpart pledged to boost bilateral trade to USD 5.0 billion in the coming years, from just over USD 1.0 billion at present.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is seen accelerating this year as an improving business climate and ongoing market friendly reforms boost private consumption and capital spending. Nevertheless, downside risks stem from a bleak external backdrop: Lower commodity prices and weaker Chinese demand due to the coronavirus outbreak could weigh on exports this year. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 5.7% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 5.9% in 2021.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)30.531.031.632.132.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,0702,1492,1241,8391,547
GDP per capita (EUR)1,5121,9371,9211,6051,310
GDP (USD bn)63.166.767.159.150.4
GDP (EUR bn)46.160.160.651.642.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.27.46.14.55.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.911.67.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.40.816.47.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.20.10.00.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.87.18.620.220.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.18.58.813.917.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.009.009.0014.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,4222,8103,2188,1208,340
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,3082,5702,9655,1238,070
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,9313,0523,3949,7519,533
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)3,0642,8523,2795,8699,531
Current Account (% of GDP)1.70.60.52.5-7.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.10.50.31.5-3.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.6-11.6-2.4-2.2-6.9
Exports (USD billion)6.45.48.610.211.4
Imports (USD billion)19.017.011.012.418.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.0-16.260.717.512.0
Imports (annual variation in %)3.4-16.5-34.912.147.5
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.121.121.826.434.3

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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