Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Cumulative data for January–September suggests the economy remained mostly anemic throughout Q3, as the pandemic and related measures dragged on activity, although output seemingly recovered markedly from Q2’s sharp contraction. On the production side, agricultural activity saw an uptick in output, as did the construction sector. However, industrial output deteriorated further in Q3 despite a small uptick in manufacturing production, mainly due to a severe contraction in mining and quarrying activity. Moreover, the services sector was fairly weak in the quarter. Looking at Q4, the recovery could be curtailed by weaker demand abroad as many countries reinstate lockdown measures. Moreover, although domestic Covid-19 cases are notably below the numbers seen in August and September so far in the quarter, a possible flare-up in infections threatens to derail the year-end recovery.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures will bite into growth this year. However, growth should regain healthy momentum in 2021 as external demand normalizes, leading to a rebound in industrial production. Volatile commodity prices and a possible next wave of infections bringing more restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 5.2% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2022, the economy is seen growing 5.9%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.14.55.45.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.1-0.2-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.52.5-7.1-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.50.31.5-3.6-3.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-44.012.147.516.2
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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