Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

September 7, 2021

An advanced estimate showed GDP growth accelerated to the highest level since Q3 2016 in Q2, after Q1’s private consumption-driven expansion. The upturn was predominately driven by stronger industrial production and retail trade output. Turning to Q3, the economy is facing headwinds: The gradual reimposition of restrictions since late June has weighed on travel and the hospitality sector, while ongoing dry conditions will be stunting the all-important agricultural sector. Externally, merchandise exports contracted in July amid lower gold shipments, as a decline in prices led the Central Bank to halt the sale of the yellow metal at the start of Q3. However, industrial production growth gained momentum in July, while robust transportation and financial services activity in the same month should have propped up the tertiary sector, despite ongoing Covid-19-related restrictions.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain upbeat in H2 this year on the back of robust expansions in mining, manufacturing and services activity. However, the halting of gold sales abroad amid lower prices could weigh on the external sector. Delays in the vaccine rollout and regional instability pose downside risks, while the government’s ambitious reform agenda is an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. For 2022, the economy is seen growing 5.8%.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.14.55.45.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.1-0.2-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.52.5-7.1-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.50.31.5-3.6-3.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-44.012.147.516.2
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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