Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

March 6, 2018

After clocking a notable slowdown in 2017, the Uzbek economy seemingly started this year on a strong note: Industrial production rose by a double-digit year-on-year rate in January, supported by higher commodity prices and a healthy external sector. The services sector also grew robustly in January. On the political front, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev fired the head of national security, Rustam Inoyatov, regarded as the country’s second most influential politician after the president on 31 January. Although the move has sparked concerns of further power consolidation, it should help the president push forward with the implementation of market-friendly economic reforms, which Inoyatov had opposed.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to accelerate in 2018, amid healthy private consumption and fixed investment. Nevertheless, high inflation, slow implementation of structural economic reforms, and volatile commodity prices will continue to generate uncertainty in the short-to-medium term. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 6.2% in 2018, which unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 6.2% in 2019.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

Population (million)29.730.230.631.031.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7521,8902,0602,1532,145
GDP per capita (EUR)1,3811,4541,5041,9401,939
GDP (USD bn)
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.011.511.56.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.911.
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0010.009.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9842,2022,4222,8103,218
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8892,0922,3082,5702,965
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,6163,0342,9313,0523,394
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,4292,7803,0642,8523,279
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-6.2-7.9-5.3-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)2.432.7-12.8-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)10.717.05.1-19.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)17.518.721.122.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

Exchange Rate8,1400.0 %Mar 15

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