Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

The economy stagnated in H1 on the fallout from the pandemic and its related restrictive measures implemented in March. Industrial activity contracted as the mining sector collapsed, while service activities were subdued by the national lockdown. Moving to Q3, the second lockdown imposed in early July likely restrained the recovery. August data suggests that industrial production remained downbeat as mining output fell again, while services activity lost steam amid weakness in the transport and accommodation and food sectors. More positively, exports recovered in August on the easing of lockdowns abroad, while construction activity picked up in the same month. In other news, the IMF concluded a staff visit in 21 September. In its assessment, the Fund praised the fiscal measures adopted in response to the pandemic, but encouraged authorities to press ahead with structural reforms.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures will bite into growth this year. On the external front, feeble demand and uncertainty will keep exports subdued. However, 2021 should see some recovery as external demand normalizes. Volatile commodity prices and a further wave of infections bringing more restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 0.2% in 2020 and 5.3% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.031.632.132.633.0
GDP per capita (USD)2,6362,5901,8391,5471,754
GDP per capita (EUR)2,3762,3421,6051,3101,568
GDP (USD bn)81.881.859.150.457.9
GDP (EUR bn)73.773.951.642.751.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.14.55.45.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.67.0-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.816.47.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.1-0.2-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.18.620.220.429.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.813.917.514.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.009.0014.0016.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,8103,2188,1208,3409,516
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5702,9655,1238,0708,834
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0523,3949,7519,53310,682
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,8523,2795,8699,5319,885
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.52.5-7.1-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.50.31.5-3.6-3.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.0-2.4-2.2-6.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)5.78.610.211.413.9
Imports (USD billion)19.711.012.418.321.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.151.417.512.022.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.5-44.012.147.516.2
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.817.926.834.342.1

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Uzbekistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9,5160.0 %Dec 31

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