Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Growth remained sturdy in January–November, supported by robust retail sales and a solid increase in industrial production which came largely on the back of soaring mining and quarrying output. Furthermore, healthy demand for real estate propped up strong construction activity growth in the same period. However, the external sector’s performance remained downbeat in January–November, partly as a result of subdued exports of precious metals. Meanwhile, on 21 December, Fitch Ratings assigned Uzbekistan a BB- sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted the strong external balance sheet, stable financial sector and low public indebtedness as the country’s main strengths. Furthermore, S&P Global Ratings also recently assigned a sovereign credit rating to Uzbekistan, giving the country BB- with a stable outlook.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The economy should continue to power ahead this year, propelled by strong government spending, robust capital investment and a solid inflow of remittances from Russia. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 5.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1061,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.710.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0010.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8103,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.810.810.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

Exchange Rate8,3560.0 %Jan 16

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