The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine Monetary Policy September 2022

Ukraine: NBU leaves key rate unchanged at September meeting

At its meeting on 8 September, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) unanimously voted to maintain its policy rate at 25.00%, after the largest rate hike in 24 years at its June meeting.

The board members’ decision to leave the main rate unchanged was chiefly due to a lower-than-expected inflation figure in July. The figure came amid tighter monetary policy, falling prices for oil and a seasonal increase in the food supply. Moreover, the Bank’s intervention to support the hryvnia last July similarly helped keep inflation in check and supported macroeconomic stability. Nonetheless, the Bank expects inflation to remain elevated as a result of the widespread disruption from the war and the worsening of inflation expectations. Against this backdrop, the NBU felt it was appropriate to continue its wait-and-see approach.

In its September release, the Bank stated that with the current baseline scenario, rates are expected to remain at current levels until Q2 2024. That said, it “stands ready to raise the key policy rate above its current level and to deploy additional measures to protect international reserves, as well as and to maintain control over inflation”. As such, all but one of our panelists expect rates to remain steady through 2022, before being lowered in 2023.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 20 October.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest