Mountains in Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

Following Q2 2022’s acceleration, the economy likely expanded at a softer annual pace in Q3. In July–September, economic activity growth came in at 3.9% (Q2: +10.4%). Lower crude oil output and fertilizer exports will have dented the reading. In addition, a higher unemployment rate and surging consumer prices likely eroded household spending. That said, double-digit growth in LNG output will have supported activity somewhat. In Q4, GDP growth likely cooled further. LNG production rose at a slower annual pace through December. Additionally, accelerating household credit growth likely failed to shield consumers fully from the highest inflation rate since 2015. However, still-elevated oil and gas prices will have supported the public budget. Meanwhile, in February, Trinidad offered to process crude oil and natural gas from neighbor states to use its spare energy liquefaction capacity.

Trinidad and Tobago Inflation

Inflation grew further to 8.7% in December, from 8.0% in November. A swelling import bill, adverse weather conditions and lower fuel subsidies pushed price pressures up in Q4. Inflation should cool in 2023 on weaker external price pressures. Surging commodity prices pose upside risks to the outlook.

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
GDP (USD bn) 24 24 24 21 24
GDP per capita (USD) 17 17 17 15 17
GDP (TTD bn) 161 165 161 142 165
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 2.1 -2.2 -11.7 16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -4.7 -0.9 0.1 -7.7 -1.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.8 3.9 4.3 5.7 5.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -5.9 -3.7 -11.6 -9.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 41.5 41.8 45.4 59.3 60.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) -2.1 3.1 0.1 10.9 -0.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.8 3.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 2.1
Repo Rate (%, eop) 4.75 5.00 5.00 3.50 3.50
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, eop) 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, aop) 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 1 2 1 -1 3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.9 6.7 4.3 -6.4 11.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3 4 3 1 5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10 11 9 6 11
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 6 7 6 5 6
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.4 11.5 -18.5 -31.5 84.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -9.0 2.6 -8.8 -16.8 26.9
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0 -1 0 0 0
International Reserves (USD bn) 8 7 7 7 7
International Reserves (months of imports) 15.4 13.6 13.6 16.4 12.8

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