Sweden: Riksbank delivers another rate increase in September, meeting market expectations
At its 20 September meeting, the Riksbank delivered another 25 basis point increase, bringing the policy rate to 4.00%—effective from 27 September. The move, which markets had priced in, came on the heels of June’s same-sized increase.
The hike was motivated by still-elevated price pressures. While inflation has trended down in recent months, the Riksbank deemed higher interest rates necessary to bring inflation back to its 2.0% target “within a reasonable period of time”. The Bank noted that the “unjustifiably weak krona” had fueled price pressures in recent months. As such, a more restrictive monetary policy rate will help ensure inflation continues its downtrend despite a weak krona.
With regard to forward guidance, the Bank stated that the policy rate “could be raised further”. That said, its forecast for the level of the policy rate was unchanged from June’s monetary policy report. The last scheduled meeting for this year is set for 22 November, with the policy decision to be announced the following day. Most of our panelists see the policy rate ending 2023 at its current level, although some have penciled in another 25 basis point increase.