Portugal Economic Outlook
September 25, 2018The latest national accounts data revealed that the economy picked up marginally over the previous quarter in Q2, owing to an acceleration in total investment driven by a surge in inventories. Available data for the outset of Q3, however, suggests a slight slowdown in growth: Industrial production contracted at a sharper annual rate in July than in the previous month, and annual growth in retail sales also dropped as inflation picked up and ate into consumers’ purchasing power. The trend in the retail sector appears set to continue as consumer confidence remained in negative territory in August. On the other hand, the economic climate indicator stabilized at a positive level in August, while business confidence was more upbeat, signaling the prospect of more investment. Meanwhile, Portugal’s successful sale of EUR 1 billion worth of 5- and 10-year bonds helped lift sentiment towards peripheral markets. On another positive note, citing strong growth prospects and the government’s commitment to further easing the debt burden, S&P Global Ratings bumped up Portugal’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive on 14 September.
Portugal Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to moderate again next year, as domestic demand is anticipated to moderate. Private consumption is expected to grow at a weaker pace amid increasing inflationary pressures, as is fixed investment. Export growth is also expected to slow, likely owing to heightened trade tensions. That said, tourist arrivals and the country’s real estate sector should remain strong, although there are growing concerns of a bubble brewing in the sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Portugal Economy Data
5 years of Portugal economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.03||-1.90 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.16||0.65 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||5,007||-0.02 %||Oct 12|
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Portugal Economic News
September 28, 2018
Industrial production dipped 2.9% over the same month of last year in August, following a revised 1.3% year-on-year decline in July (previously reported: -1.7% year-on-year).
September 27, 2018
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 27 September, consumer confidence deteriorated marginally and remained entrenched in negative territory.
August 31, 2018
Detailed national accounts data, released by the Statistical Institute on 31 August, confirmed that the economy picked up slightly in the second quarter of 2018.
August 30, 2018
Industrial production contracted 1.7% over the same month of last year in July, following a revised 0.2 % year-on-year decline in June (previously reported: -0.9% year-on-year).
Portugal: Consumer confidence remains in pessimistic territory, while economic sentiment stabilizes in August
August 30, 2018
According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 30 August, consumer confidence showed marginal improvement but remained entrenched in negative territory.