Portugal Economic Outlook
August 27, 2019The economy maintained a firm pace of expansion in the second quarter, as a stronger external sector countered weaker domestic demand. Fixed investment, however, likely lost traction in the quarter, reflected in part by reduced purchases of capital goods from overseas markets. Meanwhile, private consumption metrics were mixed: Imports of consumer goods fell, while consumer confidence climbed. Turning to Q3, consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in July, while the economic climate index inched down in the same month. A faster-than-expected decline in the public debt load and ongoing improvements in the banking sector prompted Moody’s to upgrade the outlook on the country’s credit rating from stable to positive on 9 August. In other news, the government lifted all limits on fuel purchases on 19 August after fuel tanker drivers agreed to enter government-brokered talks with employers. This followed seven days of strikes and has abated fears that lengthy fuel shortages would restrain economic activity.
Portugal Economic GrowthGrowth is set to slide this year, as imports pick up and drag on the external sector. Meanwhile, fixed investment is seen accelerating, thanks to the rollout of several delayed investment projects, which should sustain the pace of expansion in domestic demand. On the flip side, private consumption is expected to lose steam amid weaker consumer confidence. Downside risks to the outlook stem from a challenging external environment. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.
Portugal Economy Data
5 years of Portugal economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.17||-1.90 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||1.10||0.65 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||4,931||-0.02 %||Sep 04|
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Portugal Economic News
August 30, 2019
The industrial sector showed improvement in July, with the rate of contraction easing from a revised 5.5% in June (previously reported: -5.8% year-on-year) to 3.5%.
August 30, 2019
Detailed national accounts released on 30 August confirmed that the economy grew 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter).
August 29, 2019
Consumers turned more downbeat in August, with the consumer confidence index tumbling to minus 7.8 points from a nine-month high of minus 6.4 points in July.
August 14, 2019
According to preliminary estimates released by the Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 August, the economy grew 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms in Q2, matching the previous quarter’s print.
July 30, 2019
Consumers were less downbeat in July compared to June, with the consumer confidence index climbing to minus 6.4 points from minus 8.4 points in June, marking the best reading since October 2018.