Portugal Economic Outlook
September 28, 2021
A second release confirmed that the economy rebounded in Q2, benefiting from a favorable base effect after the lifting of the tough restrictions in place during Q1. Turning to Q3, momentum has likely slowed due to a less favorable base effect and some headwinds: A localized resurgence in Covid-19 cases led to some tightening of restrictions in July. That said, the Bank of Portugal’s economic activity indicator has continued to clock annual growth throughout much of the quarter. In other news, the government recently announced a EUR 815 million buffer to mitigate the adverse effects of rising energy prices. Additionally, Moody’s upgraded Portugal’s credit rating to Baa2 from Baa3 with a stable outlook in September, citing incoming EU funds as the key driver. Lastly, the country held local elections on 26 September, with the outcome unlikely to affect economic policy.Portugal Economic Growth
The economy is seen returning to its pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with growth accelerating after a mild recovery in 2021. Incoming EU funds will strengthen capital spending, while an improving labor market should support private consumption. Meanwhile, a swift inoculation campaign, with over 80% of people fully vaccinated, should limit the risk of further outbreaks ahead. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2021. For 2022, the panel sees GDP climbing 5.0%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.Portugal Economy Data
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Portugal Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.45 | -1.90 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Portugal Economic News
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Portugal: Industrial output contracts at sharpest pace since June 2020 in August
September 30, 2021
Industrial output nosedived 9.0% year-on-year in seasonally-adjusted terms in August (July: +0.8% s.a.
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Portugal: Consumer confidence hits highest reading since February 2020, economic sentiment ebbs in September
September 29, 2021
Consumer confidence ticked up to minus 9.9 in September, following August’s minus 11.9, which means consumers became less pessimistic.
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Portugal: GDP bounces back in the second quarter
August 31, 2021
A second estimate confirmed that GDP rebounded, expanding 4.9% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter, above the 3.2% contraction seen in the first quarter, as restrictions were severely tightened throughout the better part of Q1.
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Portugal: Industrial output records slowest growth since February in July
August 31, 2021
Industrial production grew 0.5% year-on-year in seasonally-adjusted terms in July (June: +10.8% s.a.
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Portugal: Consumer confidence reaches pre-pandemic levels, economic sentiment remains steady in August
August 30, 2021
Consumer confidence soared to minus 11.9 in August, from minus 17.0 in July, hitting the highest level since February 2020, just before the pandemic hit.
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