Portugal Economic Outlook
February 4, 2020
The economy looks to have grown at a moderate pace in the final quarter of 2019, although likely continued to outstrip the Eurozone average nonetheless. Industrial production rebounded in November–December—driven by an improving manufacturing sector—with turnover expanding for the first time since May 2019. Furthermore, merchandise exports accelerated in October–November, propelled by healthy intra-EU trade, while tourist arrivals continued to increase robustly in the same period. That said, tepid retail sales growth amid a slackening labor market, a reduction in household credit growth, and more downbeat consumer confidence in December all suggested private consumption faltered in the quarter. In other news, the government’s prospective 2020 budget was approved by Parliament on 10 January. It projects a small fiscal surplus of 0.1% for the year, which the majority of our panelists see as mildly optimistic.Portugal Economic Growth
Growth is expected to moderate this year as fixed investment will lose momentum amid lower construction funding and waning labor market dynamics and weak sentiment will curb private consumption. Tough external trading conditions, weak global activity and persistently high domestic debt levels remain the key downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2021.Portugal Economy Data
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Portugal Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.45 | -1.90 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Portugal Economic News
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Portugal: Economic growth picks up in Q4, powered by a stronger external sector
February 14, 2020
According to preliminary estimates released by the country’s Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 February, GDP grew 0.6% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter, up slightly from the third quarter’s revised 0.4% expansion (previously reported: +0.3%).
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Portugal: Consumer and business confidence broadly stable in January
January 31, 2020
Consumer sentiment weakened further in January, with the consumer confidence index inching down to minus 8.4 points from minus 8.3 points in December.
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Portugal: Industrial production shoots higher in December
January 30, 2020
Industrial production jumped 3.3% higher in December over the same month of the previous year, following a revised 0.4% rise in November (previously reported: +0.2% year-on-year) and marking the strongest expansion in two years.
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Portugal: Consumer confidence drops in December, with business sentiment tepid
January 2, 2020
Consumer sentiment slumped in December, with the consumer confidence index slipping to minus 8.3 points from minus 6.9 points in November.
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Portugal: Industrial production rebounds mildly in November
December 30, 2019
Industrial production inched up 0.2% in November over the same month of the previous year, following a revised 2.3% year-on-year drop in October (previously reported: -2.4% year-on-year).
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