Portugal Economic Outlook
June 2, 2020
The economy suffered its worst contraction in Q1 since records began in 1995, pummeled by the plunge in both domestic and external demand amid the widespread measures implemented to corral the spread of Covid-19. Although investment activity surprisingly rebounded after three consecutive quarters of decline, private consumption sank at an unprecedented rate. This, coupled with exports crumbling at the sharpest pace since the 2009 global financial crisis, took a drastic toll on activity. Turning to Q2, prospects are even more dire. In April, retail sales crashed at an unparalleled rate amid stay-at-home orders, while the key tourism sector was decimated as foreign travel came to a standstill. And although consumer sentiment improved in May, it remained well entrenched in pessimistic territory. More positively, the final stage of the economy’s reopening began on 1 June but with capacity limitations still in place.Portugal Economic Growth
The economic downturn will be steep this year owing to the coronavirus shock. Given the economy’s reliance on the tourism industry, exports will crumble due to the collapse in travel. Household consumption will plunge amid a jump in unemployment, and investment will retreat due to lingering uncertainty. The marked deterioration in the fiscal position clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to contract 8.3% in 2020, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and grow 5.4% in 2021.Portugal Economy Data
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Portugal Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.45 | -1.90 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Portugal Economic News
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Portugal: Industrial output collapses again in May
June 30, 2020
Industrial output collapsed 26.0% year-on-year in May, which followed the record-breaking 27.4% plunge in April.
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Portugal: Consumer and business sentiment gain traction in June but remain deep in pessimistic territory
June 29, 2020
Consumer sentiment rose again from minus 32.1 in May to minus 25.7 in June on the back of continued easing of Covid-19-related restrictions.
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Portugal: Deterioration in manufacturing conditions eases but remains severe in May
June 1, 2020
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) bounced back from April’s record-low of 31.9 to 40.6 in May, but was still weighed on by protracted lockdown measures.
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Portugal: Industrial output falls at unparalleled pace in April on Covid-19 blow
June 1, 2020
Industrial production collapsed an unprecedented 25.9% year-on-year in April (March: -6.8% year-on-year) due to activity restrictions amid the measures enacted to contain Covid-19’s spread.
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Portugal: GDP records largest drop on record in Q1 on Covid-19 impact
May 29, 2020
GDP plunged 3.8% in seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2020 (Q4 2019: +0.7% s.a.
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