Portugal Economic Outlook
September 1, 2020A preliminary estimate revealed that the economy shrank at a record pace in the second quarter as the brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated containment measures was felt. Although a detailed breakdown of components is not yet available, the downturn is expected to have been broad-based, with particularly household spending and investment tumbling due to lockdown measures and elevated uncertainty. In addition, exports are expected to have been hit by collapsing activity in trading partners and halted tourist arrivals. Turning to Q3, although consumer sentiment dropped in July, it strengthened somewhat in August. Meanwhile, the country is set to receive EUR 5.9 billion from the European Union’s SURE program to help support high unemployment costs due to the pandemic.
Portugal Economic GrowthThe economy is seen contracting at the sharpest pace in decades this year. A sharp deterioration in the labor market will dent private consumption, while coronavirus fears and mobility restrictions hammer the vital tourism industry, which makes up around 15% of GDP. Uncertainty in the tourism sector and the possibility of further containment measures pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP plunging 8.9% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before climbing 5.8% in 2021.
Portugal Economy Data
5 years of Portugal economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.45||-1.90 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Portugal Economic News
August 28, 2020
Consumer sentiment rose to minus 25.3 in August, from July’s minus 27.1.
August 14, 2020
According to preliminary estimates, the economy shrank 13.9% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q2 amid Covid-19 containment measures, after contracting 3.8% in Q1.
July 30, 2020
Consumer sentiment fell to minus 27.1 in July from June’s minus 25.7 as Covid-19 cases mounted, putting an end to two months of recovery since April.
July 30, 2020
Industrial production decreased 14.6% year-on-year in June (May: -27.3% yoy).
June 30, 2020
Industrial output collapsed 26.0% year-on-year in May, which followed the record-breaking 27.4% plunge in April.