Portugal Economic Outlook
May 31, 2022After Q1’s surprisingly positive GDP figures, growth appears to be normalizing in Q2. In April, consumer sentiment remained quite downbeat due to the war in Ukraine, while inflation continued to spike, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending. On the other hand, business confidence ticked up in April, while the tourism sector performed robustly during the same month. The stronger-than-expected recovery, coupled with a degree of public spending restraint, led Fitch Ratings to revise the country’s outlook from stable to positive in early May, while the finance minister vowed to reduce the public debt at a faster pace to help ensure financial stability. The European Commission recently drew attention to upward pressure on public spending stemming from the country’s sizeable public sector wage bill, while the IMF has called for measures to bolster pension sustainability.
Portugal Economic GrowthThe GDP growth estimate for 2022 was revised significantly upwards this edition, as panelists factored in an unexpectedly strong performance during Q1. Growth will be fueled by a recovery in tourism, robust household spending amid a solid labor market and EU fund inflows. However, the prolongation of supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 5.3% in 2022, which is up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP climbing 2.3%.
Portugal Economy Data
5 years of Portugal economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.45||-1.90 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Portugal Economic News
January 31, 2023
Industrial output expanded 2.5% year on year in seasonally-adjusted terms in December, which contrasted November's 0.2% decrease.
January 30, 2023
Consumer confidence came in at minus 35.4 in January, up from December's minus 37.1.
January 18, 2023
Harmonized inflation fell to 9.8% in December from November’s 10.2%.
January 2, 2023
Consumer confidence came in at minus 37.1 in December, up from November's minus 38.7.
January 2, 2023
Industrial production dropped 0.3% year on year in seasonally-adjusted terms in November (October: -1.9% s.a.