Poland: Solid momentum maintained in Q1 2019
May 15, 2019
Poland’s economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in unadjusted terms in the first quarter of this year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Office (GUS) on 15 May. The first-quarter outturn beat analysts’ expectations, although still decelerated from the previous quarter (Q4 2018: +4.9% year-on-year). Ahead of comprehensive first-quarter national accounts on 31 May, it appears that the unexpectedly strong GDP reading was thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production, which was seemingly unaffected by a weaker industrial sector in Germany and partly offset softer yet still solid household spending.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth jumped to 1.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms from Q4’s revised +0.5% qoq s.a. expansion (previously reported: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).
Economic activity will likely decelerate this year amid a less supportive external environment and a diminished contribution to growth from EU-driven fixed investment. Nevertheless, sizable wage and job gains should sustain consumer spending and GDP. Moreover, the government’s fiscal measures, which are set to come into effect in H2, represent a key upside risk to growth.