Poland GDP Q1 2019


Poland: Solid momentum maintained in Q1 2019

May 15, 2019

Poland’s economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in unadjusted terms in the first quarter of this year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Office (GUS) on 15 May. The first-quarter outturn beat analysts’ expectations, although still decelerated from the previous quarter (Q4 2018: +4.9% year-on-year). Ahead of comprehensive first-quarter national accounts on 31 May, it appears that the unexpectedly strong GDP reading was thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production, which was seemingly unaffected by a weaker industrial sector in Germany and partly offset softer yet still solid household spending.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth jumped to 1.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms from Q4’s revised +0.5% qoq s.a. expansion (previously reported: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).

Economic activity will likely decelerate this year amid a less supportive external environment and a diminished contribution to growth from EU-driven fixed investment. Nevertheless, sizable wage and job gains should sustain consumer spending and GDP. Moreover, the government’s fiscal measures, which are set to come into effect in H2, represent a key upside risk to growth.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth to clock in at 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panel sees growth moderating to 3.3%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q1  2019 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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