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Poland GDP Q1 2022

Poland: GDP growth accelerates in Q1

GDP growth accelerated to 8.5% year on year in the first quarter, from 7.6% in Q4 2021. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth rose to 2.5% in Q1, compared to the previous quarter’s 1.8% expansion.

The improvement in the year-on-year print was spearheaded by a sustained accumulation of inventories. Meanwhile, private consumption growth slowed to 6.6% year on year in Q1, from an 8.0% expansion in Q4. Fixed investment growth came in at 4.3% in the quarter (Q4: +5.2% yoy). Moreover, public consumption growth decelerated to 0.6% (Q4: +4.0% yoy).

On the external front, exports of goods and services growth slowed to 2.0% in Q1, marking the weakest result since Q2 2020 (Q4: +6.1% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth softened to 8.8% in Q1 (Q4: +12.2% yoy), marking the slowest reading since Q1 2021.

Commenting on the outlook, Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak, economists at ING, stated:

“The coming quarters should bring a slowdown of GDP from 8.5% yoy to about 2% yoy in Q4 2022. However, the high starting point implies that average annual GDP will be about 4.7% higher this year than in 2021. The main factors driving GDP growth down are the supply constraints, i.e. potential material shortages and supply disruptions due to the war and zero-Covid policy in China, uncertainty undermining private investment, and weaker exports not only to eastern trade partners but to western partners as well (eurozone).”

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