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Poland GDP Q2 2023

Poland: GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020 in Q2 2023

According to a flash release, the economy contracted 0.5% on an annual basis in the second quarter, which was a deterioration from the first quarter’s 0.3% decrease. Q2’s reading marked the worst result since Q4 2020.

Absent a detailed release, the deterioration was seemingly driven by waning private spending; Q2 retail sales expanded at the lowest rate since Q4 2020 amid softer wage growth, elevated price pressures and deeply entrenched consumer pessimism. Weaker merchandise exports growth in April–June and downbeat data for key EU trading partners suggest the external sector also weighed on the overall figure.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP swung into contraction, falling 3.7% in Q2, contrasting the previous quarter’s 3.8% growth. Q2’s reading marked the largest contraction in three years.

A detailed breakdown will be released on 31 August.

Commenting on the outlook, Piotr Poplawski, analyst at ING, stated:

“The global environment (weak Chinese economy and dismal German industry performance) suggests that the recovery will be slow later this year and we will not see a markedly better economic performance before Q4 2023. In the context of today’s data, we see room for a downward revision of our GDP growth forecast for 2023 […].”

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