Norway: Economic growth picks up in January after a flat December
March 8, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by Statistics Norway, total economic output increased 0.2% in January compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting December’s flat growth reading. Meanwhile, in the wider November–January period, the total economy expanded 0.3% over the previous rolling quarter, down from the 0.5% increase in October–December.
Mainland GDP—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction activity and related transport—increased 0.3% in January from the previous month, contrasting the flat growth reading recorded for December. Mainland GDP rose a solid 0.8% in November–January, down marginally from the 0.9% increase in October–December.
In January, private consumption rose 0.3% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from and likely influenced by the 0.2% drop in December. Government spending increased a solid 0.5% in January, up from 0.2% in December. Fixed investment, which is notably volatile on a month-to-month basis, rose 2.0% in January, contrasting the 0.2% fall in December. The external sector found some impetus in January after a few months of downbeat readings: Exports of goods and services rose 3.6%, up from the 0.2% increment in December, and imports rose 3.4%, contrasting the 0.2% decrease in December.
Norway GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panelists expect growth of 1.9%. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists forecast an expansion of 2.3% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
Author: Edward Gardner, Economist