Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

While still struggling to deal with the impact of Cyclone Idai that struck in late-March, Mozambique was slammed by yet another storm, Cyclone Kenneth, just six weeks later. This has only exacerbated the humanitarian emergency, posing an immense challenge for reconstruction efforts ahead, which are reportedly set to cost around USD 3.2 billion. For their part, the IMF approved emergency financial assistance worth about USD 118 million, while the World Bank announced it will provide USD 350 million to help the government respond to the disaster. On the economic front, activity lost pace, on average, in January–February compared to Q4 2018. This, coupled with tumbling business confidence in March and in light of the damage created by Cyclone Idai that same month, indicates the economy is set for a weak first quarter.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Growth is expected to slow further this year as a result of the devastating cyclones. The country’s large twin deficits—which are likely to be exacerbated by the reconstruction costs of the storms—as well as the high public debt burden, represent major downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 2.6% in 2019, which is down 1.0 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2020.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.17.46.63.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.94.74.95.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-10.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.910.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.210.6
International Reserves (USD)3.02.92.21.73.1
External Debt (% of GDP)49.050.164.793.7-  

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate62.100.48 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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