Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

The economy continued to grow in the third quarter, expanding 3.4% in annual terms, accelerating from the 2.0% growth tallied in the prior quarter. Q3’s upturn was largely attributed to higher output in the agricultural sector, extractive industries and the manufacturing sector, while electricity and gas production bounced back. However, a slowdown in activity in the construction and transportation sectors put a lid on Q3’s growth. Available data suggests that positive dynamics have carried over to the last quarter of the year. The private sector PMI rose healthily in October–November, on the back of solid growth in new business. Meanwhile, in early December the country received two million vaccines through the Covax program, which should help ramp up the country’s inoculation campaign and thus bodes well for activity overall.

Mozambique Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a quicker rate in 2022, as the fading impact of the pandemic supports investment, while easing restrictions release pent-up demand and bolster household spending. That said, the spread of new Covid-19 variants and domestic instability stemming from the conflict in the Cabo Delgado, threatening the country’s LNG projects, pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.3% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in 2023.

Mozambique Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)28.028.829.530.331.2
GDP per capita (USD)579417449484483
GDP (USD bn)16.212.013.314.715.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.73.83.73.42.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-16.8-9.4-5.812.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.7-5.5-3.2-7.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.213010199.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.623.75.73.53.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.619.915.13.92.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9771.3858.5361.5862.43
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)39.3962.7863.4360.4562.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-36.9-32.1-19.5-30.6-20.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.5-3.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0-2.1
Exports (USD billion)3.43.34.75.24.7
Imports (USD billion)7.64.75.26.26.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.8-2.542.010.0-9.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.7-37.510.418.110.2
International Reserves (USD)2.62.13.43.13.9
External Debt (% of GDP)85.6116115104-  

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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