Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Incoming data paints a mixed picture for Q3, following relatively mild growth in Q2. Economic activity soared in August on the back of surging turnover in the commerce sector, which will likely bring Q3’s average above that of Q2. However, this came at odds with survey-based data, which showed business confidence tumbling for the fifth consecutive month in September due to firms’ weaker expectations of hiring activity ahead. Meanwhile, on 6 November the government reached a tentative restructuring deal with most holders of its USD 727 million Eurobond, which will extend maturities and secure a portion of future gas revenues. If approved by parliament and two-thirds of creditors, the deal is set to provide significant cash flow relief.

Mozambique Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a healthy clip next year, underpinned by buoyant investment activity aided by robust FDI, particularly in the natural gas sector. The country’s fragile fiscal metrics will continue to cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2020.

Mozambique Economy Data

Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-10.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.910.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Standing Lending Facility (%, eop)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.210.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Mozambique Facts

Exchange Rate61.630.48 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 12

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