Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Economic growth accelerated to 4.1% year on year in the first quarter of 2022, from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. The biggest contributions to growth came from the agricultural and transport sectors. However, the pace of growth in the agricultural sector moderated. Strong expansions were also recorded in the industrial and energy sectors, as well as in hotels and restaurants. The latter sector was boosted by the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions from mid-January. Economic activity in Q2 will likely take a hit from Tropical Cyclone Gombe, which made landfall on 11 March. Furthermore, security issues persist: Rebels carried out several attacks in mid-June in the Cabo Delgado province, with a foreign-owned graphite mine among their targets. More positively, private-sector operating conditions improved in April–May.

Mozambique Economic Growth

The economy is expected to expand at a stronger clip this year, as the fading impact of the global pandemic should support domestic demand. With the Coral Sul offshore platform expected to come online in October, increased LNG production should further buoy activity. Clashes with jihadists in the gas-rich Cobo Delgado province cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2023.

Mozambique Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)28.028.829.530.331.2
GDP per capita (USD)579417449484483
GDP (USD bn)16.212.013.314.715.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.73.83.73.42.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-16.8-9.4-5.812.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.7-5.5-3.2-7.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.213010199.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.623.75.73.53.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.619.915.13.92.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9771.3858.5361.5862.43
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)39.3962.7863.4360.4562.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-36.9-32.1-19.5-30.6-20.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.5-3.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0-2.1
Exports (USD billion)3.43.34.75.24.7
Imports (USD billion)7.64.75.26.26.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.8-2.542.010.0-9.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.7-37.510.418.110.2
International Reserves (USD)2.62.13.43.13.9
External Debt (% of GDP)85.6116115104-  

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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