Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

January 28, 2020

Available data suggests that momentum remained weak in the final quarter of 2019, after GDP growth eased to a two-year low in the third quarter on a sharper contraction of the mining industry and softer growth in services. Economic activity gained some pace in October on the back of a rebound in commerce activity; however, the expansion remained well below Q3’s average. This, combined with business turning more pessimistic in October–November from Q3, largely on increased concerns over employment prospects, hints at subdued dynamics at 2019-end. On the political front, President Nyusi was sworn in for a second five-year term on 15 January after his Frelimo party decisively won the October elections. His main challenges ahead include preserving the peace deal struck in August with the main opposition party Renamo and overseeing massive foreign investments in the key gas industry.

Mozambique Economic Growth

The economy is expected to gain steam this year as the country rebuilds from the devastating cyclones of last year. The construction of LNG projects and soaring related investment are also seen supporting growth more broadly. The fragile creditworthiness of the sovereign, the huge pile of external debt and the yawning current account deficit all weigh on the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 4.7% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again at 4.7% in 2021.

Mozambique Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)651579417449484
GDP (USD bn)17.716.212.013.314.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.4-16.8-9.4-5.812.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.7-7.2-6.3-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.488.1122103-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.910.623.75.73.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.63.619.915.13.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)34.0146.9771.3858.5361.58
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)31.3639.3962.7863.4360.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-32.7-36.9-32.1-19.5-29.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.0-12.8-2.542.010.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.2-4.7-37.510.418.1
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)53.463.989.390.6-  

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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