Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Preliminary GDP data showed that the economy lost some steam at the start of the year, with growth moderating to 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 from 3.7% in Q4 2017. The expansion came primarily on the back of increased output in agriculture and extractive industries. Subdued activity seems to have continued into Q2, with economic activity slowing in April in annual terms on the heels of reduced turnover in the retail and transport sectors. In the political arena, President Filipe Nyusi and Ossufo Momade, the leader of the main opposition Renamo movement, announced a breakthrough agreement on 11 July over the integration of former rebels into the country’s security forces, removing a major obstacle for the conclusion of peace talks.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Higher commodity prices are expected to support growth going forward. However, exceedingly high levels of public debt pose a key downside risk to the short- and medium-term economic outlooks. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% again in 2019.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.17.46.63.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.94.74.95.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-10.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.910.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
Standing Lending Facility (%, eop)8.37.59.823.320.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.210.6
International Reserves (USD)3.02.92.21.73.1
External Debt (% of GDP)49.050.164.793.7-  

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate58.580.48 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.20.0 %Jul 17

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