Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

Sequential data alludes to a very gradual recovery so far in H2, after the Covid-19 outbreak and associated lockdown sent GDP tumbling in Q2. Economic activity, as measured by sales volume, continued to firm from the prior month in August, propelled by stronger growth in the industrial and commerce sectors. Additionally, the economic climate index crawled higher in September on improved employment conditions; that said, it still remains far below February’s peak before the pandemic started to take its toll. Meanwhile, although the private sector PMI climbed to a seven-month high in October, it still pointed to downbeat business conditions overall. In other news, the World Bank approved a USD 100 million grant in late October and the EU greenlighted around USD 116 million in aid in early November to help the government address the ongoing socioeconomic impact of the pandemic.

Mozambique Economic Growth

GDP is poised to gradually recover in 2021 after this year’s pandemic-induced contraction, partly thanks to reviving foreign demand, which should bolster exports of coal and aluminum. Gas exploration projects in the Rovuma basin could also support activity. However, the outlook remains clouded by the country’s hefty external debt load and fragile public finances. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.8% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2022.

Mozambique Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)28.028.829.530.331.2
GDP per capita (USD)579417449484483
GDP (USD bn)16.212.013.314.715.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.73.83.73.42.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-16.8-9.4-5.812.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.7-5.5-3.2-7.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.213010199.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.623.75.73.53.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.619.915.13.92.8
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9771.3858.5361.5862.43
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)39.3962.7863.4360.4562.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-36.9-32.1-19.5-30.6-20.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.5-3.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0-2.1
Exports (USD billion)3.43.34.75.24.7
Imports (USD billion)7.64.75.26.26.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.8-2.542.010.0-9.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.7-37.510.418.110.2
International Reserves (USD)2.62.13.43.13.9
External Debt (% of GDP)85.6116115104-  

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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