Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

The economy appeared to have gained momentum in the final quarter of 2018, following a modest showing in Q3 that was underpinned by buoyant output growth in the extractive industry. After a healthy year-on-year expansion in October, economic activity soared in November on the back of surging activity in the retail trade sector. This, combined with strengthening business confidence in December, mainly reflecting the improved outlook over hiring intentions ahead, bode well for overall business dynamics in Q4. Meanwhile, on 7 February, President Filipe Nyusi sacked his deputy finance minister Isaltina Lucas, another top official who has been embroiled in the massive hidden loans scandal which thrust the country into a debt crisis in 2016.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Growth is seen accelerating this year, aided by the gradual easing of monetary conditions and strong investment flows, particularly into liquified natural gas megaprojects. The government’s heavy debt burden will continue to cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2020.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)609637552382-  
GDP (USD bn)16.117.315.511.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.17.46.63.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.94.74.95.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)53.224.0-22.8-29.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-10.7-7.2-6.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1119-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.910.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0031.6045.0071.2058.53
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.9130.6938.2862.5763.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-39.1-33.5-38.6-35.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.1-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.1-4.9-12.8-2.942.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-5.9-5.0-38.210.6
International Reserves (USD)3.02.92.21.73.1
External Debt (% of GDP)49.050.164.793.7-  

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate62.550.48 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 11

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