Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Preliminary data showed that economic conditions remained lackluster in the final quarter of 2019, with annual GDP growth matching the third quarter’s 2.0% upturn—leading to the weakest expansion in over two decades for the year as a whole. Although the primary sector recovered in Q4, mainly on the back of a rebound in fishery production, the industrial sector contracted amid a marked decline in manufacturing output. Meanwhile, the key mining industry shrank for the third quarter running. As for the services sector, activity cooled, though it remained somewhat healthy thanks to improved dynamics in financial services and public administration. In other news, on 12 February, the government signed a cooperation agreement with Norway that aims to build the country’s capacity for the sustainable exploitation of its gas reserves.

Mozambique Economic Growth

Growth is poised to bounce back this year amid the reconstruction efforts from the devastating cyclones that struck last year. Soaring capital spending towards the development of mega LNG projects is also expected to prop up activity in the short- to medium-term. Key risks to the outlook abound, however, particularly the country’s high public and external debt loads. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 4.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 4.5% in 2021.

Mozambique Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)27.228.028.829.530.3
GDP per capita (USD)651579417449484
GDP (USD bn)17.716.212.013.314.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.73.83.73.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.4-16.8-9.4-5.812.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.7-7.2-6.0-3.1-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.494.213010199.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.910.623.75.73.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.63.619.915.13.9
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)34.0146.9771.3858.5361.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)31.3639.3962.7863.4360.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-32.7-36.9-32.1-19.5-30.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0
Exports (USD billion)3.93.43.34.75.2
Imports (USD billion)8.07.64.75.26.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.0-12.8-2.542.010.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.2-4.7-37.510.418.1
International Reserves (USD)3.22.62.13.43.1
External Debt (% of GDP)53.485.6116115104

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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