Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

November 12, 2019

In the 15 October elections, President Filipe Nyusi was re-elected with 73% of the votes. His Liberation Front (Frelimo) party secured a majority in all of the country’s provinces and won more than two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly. This indicates a continuation of current economic policy, consisting primarily in attracting FDI in the natural gas sector. However, numerous irregularities were reported during the election day and Renamo, the main opposition party, has contested the result. This threatens the peace accord signed in August, which brought an end to four decades of violence, and thus stability in the country. In other news, a USD 727 million bond restructuring was concluded on 30 October with a new USD 900 million bond maturing in 2031, boding well for investor confidence and foreign aid.

Mozambique Economic Growth

The economy is seen gaining steam next year as the country recovers from the damage caused by the tropical storms, and as investment activity linked to construction in the natural gas sector starts. However, elevated political tensions following the election and the country’s widening current account deficit pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 4.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 4.7% in 2021.

Mozambique Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.228.028.829.5
GDP per capita (USD)644651579417449
GDP (USD bn)17.017.716.212.013.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.07.46.73.83.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.012.4-16.8-9.4-5.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-10.7-7.2-6.3-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.162.488.1122103
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.910.623.75.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.32.63.619.915.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.0134.0146.9771.3858.53
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)30.0031.3639.3962.7863.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-36.7-32.7-36.9-32.1-19.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.3-5.8-6.0-3.8-2.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-4.0-4.2-1.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)4.13.93.43.34.7
Imports (USD billion)8.58.07.64.75.2
Exports (annual variation in %)6.9-5.0-12.8-2.542.0
Imports (annual variation in %)7.3-6.2-4.7-37.510.4
International Reserves (USD)3.43.22.62.13.4
External Debt (% of GDP)50.053.463.989.390.6

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Mozambique Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate61.700.48 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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