Indonesia Trade Balance April 2019

Indonesia

Indonesia: Indonesia registers record trade deficit in April

May 15, 2019

According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade deficit of USD 2.5 billion in April, contrasting March’s revised USD 0.7 billion surplus and coming in substantially above market expectations of a mere USD 0.5 billion shortfall.

The deficit came on the back of a plunge in exports (April: -13.1% year-on-year; March: -9.0% yoy), on lower energy and non-energy exports. Imports also fell, albeit less sharply than in the prior month (April: -6.6% yoy; March: -7.0% yoy), likely on the back of government measures to curb the current account deficit.

Looking ahead, exports are seen recovering some lost ground later this year but will likely stay soft, dampened by low prices for palm oil—a key export—and weaker global momentum. Imports are also seen picking up slightly on stronger imports for infrastructure projects following the elections, although a tough base effect and government measures to curb the current account deficit will ensure imports remain subdued overall.

Last month, panelists saw exports and imports expanding 4.2% and 1.3% respectively in 2019, which would bring the trade balance to a USD 3.3 billion deficit. For 2020, the panel saw exports and imports growing 6.8% and 7.5% respectively, with a trade deficit of USD 5.0 billion. A new Consensus Forecast will be released on 21 May.


Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart


Indonesia Trade12m April 2019

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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