India Trade April 2019

India

India: Merchandise export growth slumps in April, deficit widens

May 15, 2019

Merchandise export growth in annual terms plummeted to 0.6% in April, down from 11.0% in March. The slowdown was primarily due to a decrease in shipments excluding petroleum, gems and jewelry. Merchandise imports increased 4.5% in April, up from 1.4% in March. Higher imports in April were largely caused by a 9.2% rise in oil purchases.

The merchandise trade deficit was USD 15.3 billion in April, which represented a widening compared to the USD 13.7 billion deficit in the same month a year earlier and USD 10.9 billion shortfall in March. Meanwhile, the 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit widened for the first time in five months to USD 178.0 billion in April from USD 176.4 billion.

Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 7.5% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 7.5%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 189.0 billion. In FY 2019, we expect exports and imports will expand 8.5% and 7.3% respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 199.0 billion.


Author:, Economist

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India Trade12m April 2019 1

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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