Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

March 6, 2018

Annual GDP growth slowed notably in the fourth quarter, restrained by slower fixed investment growth and a weak external sector. High-frequency indicators suggest, however, that the economy regained some strength in Q1 of this year. In January, the number of tourists grew at a double-digit rate year-on-year, and in February consumer confidence strengthened, boding well for household spending. Moreover, business sentiment jumped in the second month of the year. However, the unemployment rate increased in January, although this was again due to seasonal factors. Uncertainty continues to surround the debt restructuring plan for retail giant Agrokor. In late February, the government-appointed emergency administrator resigned due to a conflict of interest, prompting a temporary suspension of public trading of the company’s stock; a new administrator was subsequently appointed. A deadline for the restructuring has been set for early July. Exceeding it could hurt Agrokor providers and banks’ balance sheets.

Croatia Economic Growth

A strong tourism sector, rising wages and positive labor market dynamics should underpin consumer spending this year. Moreover, an increased disbursement of EU funds and low interest rates are expected to spur fixed investment. Financing conditions could, however, deteriorate if the Agrokor restructuring process is not successfully accomplished. Public sector wage increases and growing public investment spending will push the public budget back to deficit, although the fiscal stance will remain broadly prudent. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth of 2.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.

Croatia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)10,30910,33810,14610,46611,031
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.2-1.1-
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.0-1.9-
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.31.4-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-5.4-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-4.2-
Unemployment Rate20.921.619.617.214.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-5.3-5.4-3.4-0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)70.782.286.686.784.2
Money (annual variation in %)0.911.59.611.418.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.70.3-0.5-0.60.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.4-0.2-2.5-3.7-4.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)0.03.1-3.1-2.818.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.557.627.667.647.55
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.517.587.637.617.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.6-6.9-6.8-7.0-7.4
Exports (EUR billion)9.69.610.411.512.3
Imports (EUR billion)16.216.517.118.519.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.5-
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (EUR)11.212.912.713.713.5
External Debt (% of GDP)13614313111395.5

Sample Report

5 years of Croatia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.


Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.


Croatia Facts

Bond Yield2.260.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate6.05-0.54 %Mar 15
Stock Market1,843-0.48 %Mar 15

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Croatia Economic News