Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

Economic activity likely continued to ease in the fourth quarter of last year. Industrial output growth slowed on average in October and November compared to the prior quarter, while cooling business confidence in the same period suggests that private sector activity moderated. Household spending likely also lost steam in the final months of the year. Retail sales expanded at a notably softer pace in October–November, which was likely influenced by an uptick in the unemployment rate through November, and markedly higher inflation in the same period: Price pressures reached an over eight-year high in November. Furthermore, consumer sentiment deteriorated in the first two months of the quarter. Meanwhile, Croatia entered a fourth wave of Covid-19 in late December, with the more transmissible Omicron variant fueling the country’s highest-ever case count in early January.

Croatia Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to ease this year amid a tougher base of comparison. However, robust growth in fixed investment, supported by EU funds, and normalizing tourism activity will support the economy nonetheless. That said, Covid-19-related uncertainty clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 4.4% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.7% in 2023.

Croatia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)4.24.24.14.14.1
GDP per capita (EUR)10,69911,21811,95312,68413,276
GDP (EUR bn)45.046.849.351.953.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.43.53.12.72.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.23.13.23.23.6
Investment (annual variation in %)3.86.55.14.17.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.55.01.9-1.00.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.44.04.73.83.7
Unemployment Rate17.614.712.29.67.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.3-1.00.80.20.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.380.877.874.773.2
Money (annual variation in %)11.418.219.120.714.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.21.20.81.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.61.31.60.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.003.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-2.818.1-7.6-5.115.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.647.557.437.417.44
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.617.537.467.427.42
Current Account (% of GDP)3.12.23.91.72.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.01.71.01.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-7.1-7.6-8.4-9.6-10.3
Exports (EUR billion)10.210.511.712.212.8
Imports (EUR billion)17.318.120.221.923.2
Exports (annual variation in %)8.03.111.44.55.0
Imports (annual variation in %)7.74.711.38.56.0
International Reserves (EUR)13.713.515.717.418.6
External Debt (% of GDP)10795.588.682.375.8

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Croatia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.670.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate6.64-0.54 %Jan 01

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