Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Following Q2’s rebound, early data suggests that GDP continued to expand at a healthy, albeit weaker, rate in Q3. Solid growth in retail sales in July–August, coupled with a markedly lower unemployment rate in the same period, hints at robust household consumption. On top of this, soaring numbers of tourist arrivals in July, which came close to pre-pandemic levels, will have provided an additional boost to the economy. Meanwhile, on 28 September, the country received EUR 818 million as the first tranche of its share of the EU recovery fund, boding well for activity ahead. In other news, on 10 September the IMF concluded its Article IV consultation, highlighting the country’s economic resilience during the pandemic and bright growth prospects. However, the Fund stressed risks stemming from the pandemic’s uncertain trajectory.

Croatia Economic Growth

The economy is seen rebounding solidly this year, in line with the reopening of economies globally. Next year, GDP will continue to expand at a healthy rate, supported by firming demand and incoming EU funds. That said, Covid-19 flare-ups, in light of the importance of the country’s tourism industry, remain a key downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 7.1% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Croatia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)10,69911,21811,95312,68413,276
GDP (EUR bn)45.046.849.351.953.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate17.614.712.29.67.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.3-
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.380.877.874.773.2
Money (annual variation in %)11.418.219.120.714.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.3-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-2.818.1-7.6-5.115.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.647.557.437.417.44
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.617.537.467.427.42
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-7.1-7.6-8.4-9.6-10.3
Exports (EUR billion)10.210.511.712.212.8
Imports (EUR billion)17.318.120.221.923.2
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)7.74.711.38.56.0
International Reserves (EUR)13.713.515.717.418.6
External Debt (% of GDP)10795.588.682.375.8

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Croatia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.670.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate6.64-0.54 %Jan 01

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