Bulgaria: Growth moderates in Q2 on slower investment, exports
September 7, 2018
In line with the preliminary estimate, comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute confirmed growth on an annual basis at a seasonally-adjusted 3.4% in the second quarter, just missing analysts’ expectations and down a couple notches from the 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter.
A breakdown by expenditure showed that fixed investment eased somewhat (Q2: +4.6% yoy s.a.; Q1: +7.0% yoy s.a.) amid looser industrial capacity. Total consumption, meanwhile, accelerated markedly (Q2: +4.8% yoy s.a.; Q1: +3.3% yoy s.a.) which was led by significantly faster household spending—in line with a considerable fall in unemployment and despite sharply higher inflation.
On the external front, the pullback in global trade hit exports of goods and services (Q2: +1.7% yoy s.a.; Q1: +4.4% yoy s.a.) as demand waned across mainland Europe. Imports of goods and services grew roughly in line with the previous quarter (Q2: +4.3% yoy s.a.; Q1: +4.6% yoy s.a.), likely bolstered by demand for intermediate goods.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth in seasonally-adjusted terms inched down to 0.8% in the second quarter from the 0.9% outturn at the outset of the year.
Author: Christopher Thomas, Economist