Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3, after containment measures at home and abroad dealt a severe blow to the economy in Q2. The pace of contraction in industrial production eased notably in the quarter, on the back of an improved performance in all subsectors. Meanwhile, retail sales increased in annual terms in September, albeit at a soft pace, after having dropped considerably in the previous two months. In politics, in mid-October the government announced it will provide financial support totaling BAM 90 million (around EUR 46 million) for companies operating in sectors which have been hardest-hit by the pandemic. Moreover, in late October, the country signed a EUR 30 million loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which will offer the banking system credit lines in order to cushion the effects of higher business default risks.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Following a sharp contraction this year, the economy is seen rebounding in 2021, as domestic demand revives and as the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally supports the external sector. That said, further waves of the virus and the subsequent renewal of lockdown measures cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2022.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,7674,9925,3165,8575,839
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2984,5144,7144,9655,217
GDP (EUR bn)15.215.916.517.418.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.13.43.23.32.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.21.12.32.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.52.55.89.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.14.53.11.6-5.5
Unemployment Rate27.725.420.518.415.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.71.22.62.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.544.139.234.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-0.50.71.60.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.60.81.40.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.801.851.631.711.74
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.761.771.731.661.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6-3.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.5-3.4-3.6-3.8-4.1
Exports (EUR billion)4.64.85.76.15.9
Imports (EUR billion)8.18.39.39.910.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.54.817.47.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.012.56.01.2
International Reserves (EUR)4.44.95.45.96.4
External Debt (% of GDP)82.682.282.277.1-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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