Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

The economy is likely to have deteriorated further in the second quarter after GDP growth slowed to a four-year low in the first quarter on the back of softer domestic demand and declining foreign demand due to lockdowns at home and abroad. In April, retail sales plunged amid rising unemployment, boding ill for household spending. Moreover, industrial output crashed at a record-steep pace in May due to severe weakness in the manufacturing sector amid extinguished foreign demand, while merchandise exports also nosedived in the same month. Foreign lockdowns also weighed heavily on the tourism sector, with visitor arrivals virtually non-existent in April. On a more positive note, the gradual reopening of the economy since mid-May and fiscal stimulus should provide the economy some relief.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

GDP is expected to contract this year as the pandemic is seen weighing heavily on domestic and foreign demand. A recent uptick in cases, which could lead to a second wave, poses an extra downside risk. However, fiscal stimulus and international financial support could soften the blow somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 5.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 4.1% in 2021.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,7674,9925,3165,8575,839
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2984,5144,7144,9655,217
GDP (EUR bn)15.215.916.517.418.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.13.43.23.32.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.21.12.32.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.52.55.89.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.14.53.11.6-5.5
Unemployment Rate27.725.420.518.415.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.71.22.62.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.544.139.234.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-0.50.71.60.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.60.81.40.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.801.851.631.711.74
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.761.771.731.661.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6-3.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.5-3.4-3.6-3.8-4.1
Exports (EUR billion)4.64.85.76.15.9
Imports (EUR billion)8.18.39.39.910.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.54.817.47.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.012.56.01.2
International Reserves (EUR)4.44.95.45.96.4
External Debt (% of GDP)82.682.282.277.1-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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