Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

The economy likely lost some steam in the first quarter of this year amid a deteriorating international backdrop at the tail-end of Q1. The pace of output growth in the industrial sector nearly halved in the period. Inflationary pressures built up and reached double-digit territory by March. This will have weighed on household consumption, outweighing the support to spending provided by a drop in the unemployment rate in the period. In addition, merchandise exports growth moderated. Moving to the current quarter, merchandise export growth picked up pace in April, while imports increased at a softer rate. This bodes well for the external sector’s performance. However, greater consumer price pressures bode poorly for household spending; inflation rose to an all-time high in April.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to cool notably this year, in part due to a tougher base of comparison. Moreover, the fallout from the war in Ukraine complicates matters: The war has sent energy and food prices spiraling, eroding purchasing power. Moreover, lingering political tensions in the buildup to and aftermath of October’s general election cloud the outlook further. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2023.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,7674,9925,3165,8575,839
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2984,5144,7144,9655,217
GDP (EUR bn)15.215.916.517.418.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.13.43.23.32.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.21.12.32.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.52.55.89.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.14.53.11.6-5.5
Unemployment Rate27.725.420.518.415.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.71.22.62.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.544.139.234.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-0.50.71.60.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.60.81.40.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.801.851.631.711.74
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.761.771.731.661.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6-3.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.5-3.4-3.6-3.8-4.1
Exports (EUR billion)4.64.85.76.15.9
Imports (EUR billion)8.18.39.39.910.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.54.817.47.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.012.56.01.2
International Reserves (EUR)4.44.95.45.96.4
External Debt (% of GDP)82.682.282.277.1-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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