Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy performed poorly in the last leg of 2017. In December, retail sales growth softened from the previous month, and industrial production plunged on the back of a sizeable contraction in manufacturing output. Subdued economic activity will be compounded early this year by the effects of the fuel price hike implemented on 1 February. The approval of the reform, however, was instrumental in unfreezing pending disbursements from foreign institutions, including a EUR 550 million loan scheme with the IMF. The lender is expected to complete its first review of the Extended Fund Facility by 9 February and is likely to disburse the second EUR 72 million tranche by the same date.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth will gain some traction this year on the back of increased multilateral assistance and soaring FDI inflows. Robust foreign support will offset reduced public spending and a widening current account deficit. Our panel sees growth of 3.0% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, panelists expect growth of 3.1%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.93.93.93.93.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,3384,5964,8894,1484,287
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4183,5363,5713,7233,859
GDP (EUR bn)13.313.713.814.414.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.92.41.13.12.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.32.72.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.3-2.411.1-4.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-5.36.60.33.14.5
Unemployment Rate28.027.527.527.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.2-2.00.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.545.045.444.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.8-1.2-0.4-1.3-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.1-0.1-0.9-1.0-1.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.481.421.621.801.85
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.521.471.471.761.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.7-5.3-7.4-5.6-4.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.1-3.7-4.1-3.8-3.7
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.33.43.63.9
Imports (EUR billion)7.17.07.57.47.6
Exports (annual variation in %)1.210.03.05.28.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.1-0.73.0-2.32.7
International Reserves (EUR)3.33.64.04.44.9
External Debt (% of GDP)86.485.274.630,13028,954

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.59-0.65 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 22

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