Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

The economy likely performed well in the second quarter amid the gradual relaxation of movement restrictions. Industrial output growth picked up notable steam in the period, and merchandise exports increased at a double-digit rate on average. Turning to Q3, available data indicates that momentum eased somewhat, but remained solid nonetheless. Industrial output expanded at a healthy pace in July–August, albeit softer than in Q2, while growth in merchandise exports moderated but remained strong in the same period. Moreover, a rise in daily Covid-19 cases since the start of August, combined with the extension of associated restrictions on daily life through September, will have weighed on activity at the tail end of the third quarter.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

This year, the economy is forecast to rebound on the back of sturdier domestic and foreign demand. In 2022, growth should remain robust, supported by the gradual relaxation of lockdown measures at home and abroad. However, ongoing uncertainty over the course of the pandemic due to the spread of new Covid-19 variants and a slow vaccine rollout poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,7674,9925,3165,8575,839
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2984,5144,7144,9655,217
GDP (EUR bn)15.215.916.517.418.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.13.43.23.32.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.21.12.32.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.52.55.89.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.14.53.11.6-5.5
Unemployment Rate27.725.420.518.415.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.71.22.62.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.544.139.234.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-0.50.71.60.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.60.81.40.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.801.851.631.711.74
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.761.771.731.661.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6-3.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.5-3.4-3.6-3.8-4.1
Exports (EUR billion)4.64.85.76.15.9
Imports (EUR billion)8.18.39.39.910.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.54.817.47.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.012.56.01.2
International Reserves (EUR)4.44.95.45.96.4
External Debt (% of GDP)82.682.282.277.1-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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