Bosnia Economic Outlook
July 30, 2019The economy likely remained in a soft patch in the second quarter after economic growth weakened in Q1. Industrial production declined for the eighth month running in June, albeit at a softer pace than in May, on contractions in the manufacturing and electricity and gas supply sectors. Similarly, merchandise exports fell in June following slower growth in May. On a brighter note, the number of registered unemployed fell in May from April, boding well for consumer spending. In other news, one of Bosnia’s largest exporters, aluminium smelter company Aluminij Mostar, halted production on 10 July, as the debt-ridden company grapples with a very likely bankruptcy and failed takeover talks. A permanent closure of the plant puts an estimated 10,000 jobs at risk and could derail economic stability.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic GrowthEconomic growth is forecast to moderate somewhat this year. Slowing fixed investment and a weaker external sector will weigh on growth, dampened in part by a sluggish Euro area. Moreover, deep political division and gridlock will likely hinder reforms and keep public consumption anemic. Strong consumer spending should buttress growth, however. Our panel expects growth of 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data
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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts
|Exchange Rate||1.76||-0.65 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||0.5||0.0 %||Jul 31|
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