Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

February 11, 2020

Economic growth was stable at 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019; however, the details underlying the result portray weakening momentum. Domestic demand softened in Q3, with consumer and government spending, as well as total investment, slowing notably. The external sector buttressed growth, although this was due to a sharper contraction in imports of goods and services than in exports of goods and services. Turning to the fourth quarter, the narrative appears largely similar. The downturn in merchandise exports persisted through Q4, dampened by falling demand in the EU and Kosovan tariffs on Bosnian goods. Meanwhile, industrial production declined at a sharper rate in Q4 compared to Q3, on a sharp drop in energy generation and the seventh consecutive fall in manufacturing output.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

The economy is expected to advance at a steady pace this year. Domestic demand should gather pace on stronger household consumption and a pick-up in public spending following the government formation. That said, the slowdown in the EU and regional trade protectionism will likely weigh on exports. Stalled reform efforts represent an additional downside risk. Our panel sees growth of 2.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2021.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)3.63.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3904,7674,9925,3215,868
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0644,2984,5144,7194,973
GDP (EUR bn)14.515.215.916.517.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.74.13.43.03.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.91.82.20.82.5
Investment (annual variation in %)11.5-3.52.55.89.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.33.14.53.11.6
Unemployment Rate27.527.725.420.518.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.00.71.22.62.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.945.544.139.234.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.5-1.3-0.50.71.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.9-1.1-1.60.81.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.621.801.851.631.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.761.771.731.66
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.0-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.53.73.94.85.3
Imports (EUR billion)7.57.37.68.69.2
Exports (annual variation in %)3.15.17.021.311.5
Imports (annual variation in %)7.1-2.42.913.36.9
International Reserves (EUR)4.04.44.95.45.9
External Debt (% of GDP)27,17382.682.282.177.0

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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