Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Following the second quarter’s solid showing, data for the third quarter paints a more mixed picture. Tourist inflows were strong in August and September, while merchandise exports picked up in September. However, industrial production weakened in Q3 and imports outstripped exports due to key infrastructure projects, thus widening the trade deficit. Moreover, intensified tensions in the region culminated in Kosovo slapping 100% tariffs on Bosnian goods in retaliation for a campaign against its attempt to join the international police organization, INTERPOL. Meanwhile, recently-elected Serb leader Milorad Dodik called for the removal of peacekeeping troops and foreign judges from Bosnia which could signify an uphill political battle between the tripartite presidency.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate next year on a pick-up in investment, higher remittances and FDI inflows. However, potentially heightened political and social tensions following October’s election cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Our panel sees GDP also expanding 3.1% in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate44.943.943.241.739.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)76.080.478.165.6-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.73-0.65 %Dec 11
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 26

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