Bosnia Economic Outlook
July 7, 2020The economy is likely to have deteriorated further in the second quarter after GDP growth slowed to a four-year low in the first quarter on the back of softer domestic demand and declining foreign demand due to lockdowns at home and abroad. In April, retail sales plunged amid rising unemployment, boding ill for household spending. Moreover, industrial output crashed at a record-steep pace in May due to severe weakness in the manufacturing sector amid extinguished foreign demand, while merchandise exports also nosedived in the same month. Foreign lockdowns also weighed heavily on the tourism sector, with visitor arrivals virtually non-existent in April. On a more positive note, the gradual reopening of the economy since mid-May and fiscal stimulus should provide the economy some relief.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic GrowthGDP is expected to contract this year as the pandemic is seen weighing heavily on domestic and foreign demand. A recent uptick in cases, which could lead to a second wave, poses an extra downside risk. However, fiscal stimulus and international financial support could soften the blow somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 5.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 4.1% in 2021.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data
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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts
|Exchange Rate||1.74||-0.65 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.5||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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