Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The economy seemed to regain its foothold in Q3 following a bleak Q2 performance, when activity was dampened in part due to unfavorable weather conditions. Industrial production surged in year-on-year terms in the July-to-September period on the back of healthy manufacturing output, particularly in the production of electronic goods. However, the IMF warned in late November that Bosnia had weeks to carry out key economic reforms, including raising taxes on fuel and drafting a law on deposit insurance, to unfreeze pending disbursements. The IMF halted a EUR 550 million program last February due to slow progress on reforms.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

A vibrant EU economy will buttress GDP growth in Bosnia next year, led by stronger remittance inflows and a healthier external sector. The run-up to the October election is also likely to see the government turning more supportive of growth. A higher budget deficit could, however, further delay IMF and EU funding. Our panel sees growth of 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2019, panelists expect growth of 3.2%.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.93.93.93.93.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,3384,5964,8894,1484,287
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4183,5363,5713,7233,859
GDP (EUR bn)13.313.713.814.414.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.92.41.13.12.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.32.72.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.3-2.411.1-4.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-5.36.60.33.14.5
Unemployment Rate28.027.527.527.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.2-2.00.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.545.045.444.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.8-1.2-0.4-1.3-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.1-0.1-0.9-1.0-1.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.481.421.621.801.85
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.521.471.471.761.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.7-5.3-7.4-5.6-4.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.1-3.7-4.1-3.8-3.7
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.33.43.63.9
Imports (EUR billion)7.17.07.57.47.6
Exports (annual variation in %)1.210.03.05.28.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.1-0.73.0-2.32.7
International Reserves (EUR)3.33.64.04.44.9
External Debt (% of GDP)86.485.274.630,13028,954

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.66-0.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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