Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

The economy grew 8.4% in annual terms in Q3, slowing from Q2’s 12.1% surge but remaining solid nonetheless. While the lower overall result was in part driven by a less favorable base effect, private consumption saw the largest slowdown, with rising consumer prices likely inhibiting spending. Nevertheless, higher growth in public and capital spending bolstered the domestic economy somewhat, while growth in exports and imports remained elevated. Turning to Q4, sharply rising consumer prices and a continuation of pandemic-related restrictions amid generally elevated daily Covid-19 cases through October–December will have likely weighed further on private consumption. In politics, Republika Srpska continued with moves toward unilateral secession, with the U.S. placing new sanctions on leader Milorad Dodik in response.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

GDP growth should remain solid this year following 2021’s projected rebound, supported by higher capital and public spending, as well as the gradual relaxation of lockdown measures at home and abroad. However, rising political tensions, and ongoing pandemic-related uncertainty amid the spread the Omicron variant and a slow vaccine rollout pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.6% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2023.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,7674,9925,3165,8575,839
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2984,5144,7144,9655,217
GDP (EUR bn)15.215.916.517.418.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.13.43.23.32.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.21.12.32.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.52.55.89.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.14.53.11.6-5.5
Unemployment Rate27.725.420.518.415.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.71.22.62.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.544.139.234.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.3-0.50.71.60.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.60.81.40.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.801.851.631.711.74
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.761.771.731.661.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-4.2-3.6-3.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.5-3.4-3.6-3.8-4.1
Exports (EUR billion)4.64.85.76.15.9
Imports (EUR billion)8.18.39.39.910.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.54.817.47.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.012.56.01.2
International Reserves (EUR)4.44.95.45.96.4
External Debt (% of GDP)82.682.282.277.1-  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jan 07

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