Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy seems set to lose further momentum in Q2. In April, industrial production again declined, due to a stark contraction in energy production, while export growth decelerated further, dragged down by flagging demand for minerals and food, which offset a pick-up in manufacturing exports. This follows an expected deceleration in economic growth in Q1, due to weakness in the industrial and external sectors. Household spending, however, was likely healthy in Q1, with retail sales growth continuing apace in March to round off a solid quarter. In politics, meanwhile, a center-right, conservative coalition between the SBB and SDA has been agreed upon in principle; however, NATO membership remains a difficult hurdle in forming a new government.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth should maintain a steady, albeit more moderate, pace this year on the back of domestic demand. Slower EU growth, uncertainty over the reform agenda, and political tensions—in part related to potential NATO membership—all threaten the outlook however. Our panel expects growth of 2.7% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3425,3944,7584,9805,242
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0244,0674,2904,5034,649
GDP (EUR bn)14.514.515.215.816.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.60.23.83.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.81.41.82.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.045.544.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.4-5.3-4.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.6
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.4
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.016.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.411.9
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27,66627,15228,69927,31727,208

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.74-0.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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