Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

The economy likely remained in a soft patch in the second quarter after economic growth weakened in Q1. Industrial production declined for the eighth month running in June, albeit at a softer pace than in May, on contractions in the manufacturing and electricity and gas supply sectors. Similarly, merchandise exports fell in June following slower growth in May. On a brighter note, the number of registered unemployed fell in May from April, boding well for consumer spending. In other news, one of Bosnia’s largest exporters, aluminium smelter company Aluminij Mostar, halted production on 10 July, as the debt-ridden company grapples with a very likely bankruptcy and failed takeover talks. A permanent closure of the plant puts an estimated 10,000 jobs at risk and could derail economic stability.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to moderate somewhat this year. Slowing fixed investment and a weaker external sector will weigh on growth, dampened in part by a sluggish Euro area. Moreover, deep political division and gridlock will likely hinder reforms and keep public consumption anemic. Strong consumer spending should buttress growth, however. Our panel expects growth of 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3175,3904,7674,9925,158
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0054,0644,2984,5144,574
GDP (EUR bn)14.414.515.215.916.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.90.74.13.43.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.11.91.82.31.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.55.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.22.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.545.945.544.139.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.3-5.1-4.5-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.8
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.6
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.021.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.613.3
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27,79727,17328,64027,25427,652

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.76-0.65 %Jul 31
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jul 31

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