Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Forecast

Bosnia Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

The economy should have continued decelerating in the third quarter after a likely weak second quarter. Industrial production decreased again in August, with output contracting at the fastest pace since January, partly on the back of weakness in the manufacturing sector and extraction activity. Sluggishness in Europe, meanwhile, has kept exports suppressed, and the trade deficit consequently continued to widen through August. More positively, growth in tourist arrivals remained robust in July after a strong second quarter. Meanwhile, in the political arena, pro-Russian Serb leader Milorad Dodik was elected to the shared presidency in late September. The Serb-dominated part of the country unveiled a new gendarmerie police unit, fueling ethnic tensions, while the country remains without a new government.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic Growth

Growth in the economy should wane this year partly due to the protracted political stalemate, which is weighing on public consumption, dampening the business climate and delaying reforms. Next year, the economy should accelerate on a tightening labor market and a pick up in public expenditure, although uncertainty in the Euro Area clouds the outlook. Our panel expects growth of 2.7% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,3175,3904,7674,9925,158
GDP per capita (EUR)4,0054,0644,2984,5144,574
GDP (EUR bn)14.414.515.215.916.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.90.74.13.43.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.11.91.82.31.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.211.5-3.52.55.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.33.14.53.1
Unemployment Rate27.527.527.7-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.00.71.22.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.545.945.544.139.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.4-0.5-1.3-0.50.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.9-1.1-1.60.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.621.801.851.63
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.471.471.761.771.73
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-7.3-5.1-4.5-4.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-4.0-3.7-3.6-3.8
Exports (EUR billion)3.43.53.73.94.8
Imports (EUR billion)7.07.57.47.58.6
Exports (annual variation in %)9.53.15.17.021.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.77.1-2.32.613.3
International Reserves (EUR)3.64.04.44.95.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27,79727,17328,64027,25427,652

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.77-0.65 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.50.0 %Sep 04

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