Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

In the third quarter the wind blew slightly less strongly in the sails of the Austrian economy than previously estimated. A second reading of national accounts data showed that the economy expanded at the same pace as in Q2 and matched the EU28 average. Growth in the economy was underpinned by both domestic demand and the external sector. Domestic demand benefited from strong private consumption and fixed investment growth—although troubles in the automotive sector relating to the new emission regulations slightly dragged on household consumption—while the external sector was supported by robust foreign demand and a moderation in import growth. Meanwhile, data from the fourth quarter has been largely solid so far. The manufacturing PMI increased in November on stronger growth in output, new orders and unemployment, while consumer sentiment remained elevated in the same month. Less positively, business confidence fell to a multi-year low on worries over an economic slowdown and the health of the automotive sector.

Austria Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain robust in 2019, although the pace of expansion is expected to moderate. Public and private consumption are likely to buttress the domestic economy, with households benefiting from a tight labor market and higher wages. On the other hand, labor shortages could limit economic growth and lingering global trade tensions pose a further downside risk. The FocusEconomics panel forecasts GDP will grow 2.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2020.

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Austria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.440.40 %Jan 16
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 16
Stock Market2,929-1.00 %Jan 16

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