Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

May 3, 2022

Although initial data for the first quarter paints a fairly bright picture, the war in Ukraine will have left its mark at the tail end of the period and thereafter. Industrial output growth accelerated on a sequential basis in January–February. Retail sales rebounded robustly on a month-on-month basis in the same period, despite an uptick in the unemployment rate. The war is set to impact the Austrian economy to a greater extent than other European peers, due to close banking sector ties with Russia and the export-reliant industrial sector’s vulnerability to lessened demand in trading partners. Moreover, the war has dealt a heavy blow to consumer sentiment, which tumbled to a multi-year low in March. In mid-April, Chancellor Nehammer met with President Putin in Moscow. Afterwards, Nehammer assuaged concerns by stating that Austria would not need to pay for Russian gas in rubles.

Austria Economic Growth

Economic growth will cool notably this year, with the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia weighing more heavily on the economy. However, the removal of Covid-19 restrictions, a tightening labor market and excess savings should provide some respite. Covid-19 outbreaks remain a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 2.9% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2023.

Austria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.68.78.88.99.0
GDP per capita (EUR)39,89240,88142,00843,41144,545
GDP (EUR bn)344357370386399
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.02.12.52.41.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.34.14.03.92.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.03.15.05.92.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.63.75.04.62.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)10.82.53.9-1.81.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.21.10.6-  -  
Unemployment Rate5.86.05.54.94.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.5-0.80.20.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.982.978.374.070.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.11.62.31.71.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.80.92.22.11.5
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)11.09.230.6-19.716.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.001.001.001.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)1.72.71.62.32.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)5.99.75.79.010.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.32.61.53.63.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.5-  -  -  -  

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Austria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.030.40 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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