Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

September 29, 2020

The economy is expected to have emerged from its year-long recession in the third quarter after GDP contracted at a double-digit pace in the second as the pandemic and restrictive measures constrained activity. However, available data for Q3 paints a mixed picture and suggests that the recovery is fragile. The jobless rate remained elevated in July, despite ticking down from June’s over three-year high. This, coupled with sustained consumer pessimism through August, indicates that household expenditure is likely to have remained depressed. Furthermore, business confidence continued to hover in pessimistic territory in the same period, which will have weighed on capital expenditure. More positively, retail trade turnover jumped in July from the previous month, while the manufacturing PMI highlighted that operating conditions improved at a solid pace in July–August.

Austria Economic Growth

This year, GDP will take a hit as the global health crisis and associated containment measures weigh heavily on foreign and domestic demand. However, the economy is expected to rebound markedly next year, partly due to the government’s fiscal response to mitigate the blow from Covid-19, as well as an expected pickup in global economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP will contract 6.6% in 2020, and grow 4.8% in 2021, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Austria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.68.78.88.99.0
GDP per capita (EUR)39,89240,88142,00843,41144,545
GDP (EUR bn)344357370386399
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.02.12.52.41.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.34.14.03.92.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.03.15.05.92.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.63.75.04.62.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)10.82.53.9-1.81.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.21.10.6-  -  
Unemployment Rate5.86.05.54.94.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.5-0.80.20.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.982.978.374.070.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.11.62.31.71.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.80.92.22.11.5
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)11.09.230.6-19.716.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.001.001.001.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)1.72.71.62.32.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)5.99.75.79.010.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.32.61.53.63.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.5-  -  -  -  

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Austria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.030.40 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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