Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

June 30, 2020

The blow to the economy from Covid-19 is expected to be notably more severe in the second quarter. In April, industrial output nosedived by over a fifth year-on-year, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory through June amid demand weakness. Moreover, business sentiment remained deeply pessimistic in the quarter, boding poorly for investment. In addition, retail sales contracted sharply in April, while unemployment rose to an over one-year high in the same month. Joblessness likely increased further in May and June due to the fallout from the global pandemic, which, coupled with still-sour consumer confidence, likely took its toll on household spending in the quarter. More positively, the economy has now largely reopened, while in mid-June the government boosted fiscal stimulus to EUR 50 billion, which should support activity heading into Q3.

Austria Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shrink markedly this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with the global lockdown weighing heavily on domestic and foreign demand. In addition, rising unemployment should lead to weaker private consumption. However, fiscal stimulus could cushion the fall somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP will contract 6.5% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection, and grow 4.5% in 2021.

Austria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.68.78.88.99.0
GDP per capita (EUR)39,89240,88142,00843,41144,545
GDP (EUR bn)344357370386399
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.02.12.52.41.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.34.14.03.92.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.03.15.05.92.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.63.75.04.62.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)10.82.53.9-1.81.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.21.10.6-  -  
Unemployment Rate5.86.05.54.94.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.5-0.80.20.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)84.982.978.374.070.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.11.62.31.71.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.80.92.22.11.5
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)11.09.230.6-19.716.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.001.001.001.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.001.001.001.001.00
Current Account (% of GDP)1.72.71.62.32.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)5.99.75.79.010.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.32.61.53.63.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.5-  -  -  -  

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Austria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.030.40 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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