Argentina: Inflation falls in November
Inflation falls in November
Latest reading:
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 166.0% in November, down from October’s 193.0%. November’s reading marked the lowest inflation rate since November 2023 and was the seventh consecutive month of disinflation. The moderation was broad-based, with reduced price pressures recorded for transportation, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels. Moreover, prices for housing and utilities grew at a more subdued pace.
In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 236.4% in November (October: 242.3%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 2.43% in November over the previous month, following the 2.69% rise recorded in October. November’s result marked the lowest reading since July 2020 and was below market expectations.
Inflation came in at 166.0% in November, down from October’s 193.0%. November’s reading marked the lowest inflation rate since November 2023 and was the seventh consecutive month of disinflation. The moderation was broad-based, with reduced price pressures recorded for transportation, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels. Moreover, prices for housing and utilities grew at a more subdued pace.
In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 236.4% in November (October: 242.3%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 2.43% in November over the previous month, following the 2.69% rise recorded in October. November’s result marked the lowest reading since July 2020 and was below market expectations.
Outlook:
Outlook: Managed currency depreciation, a tight fiscal stance and a high base effect have tamed inflation in recent months, and are set to continue curbing inflation ahead.
Managed currency depreciation, a tight fiscal stance and a high base effect have tamed inflation in recent months, and are set to continue curbing inflation ahead.
Panelist insight:
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella commented:
“In our assessment, today’s print and recent communication from President Milei and Minister Caputo suggest that the government is likely to slow down the depreciation crawl of the official exchange rate in the following months. After last month’s CPI release, President Milei stated that if inflation remained stable for two more months—it did in November—the monthly crawl would be lowered to 1% from the 2% that has been maintained since January. Consistent with this view, and marking the lower-than-expected inflation reading for November, we revised downward our inflation forecast for 2024 from 122% to 118% and for 2025 from 35% to 30%.”
Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella commented:
“In our assessment, today’s print and recent communication from President Milei and Minister Caputo suggest that the government is likely to slow down the depreciation crawl of the official exchange rate in the following months. After last month’s CPI release, President Milei stated that if inflation remained stable for two more months—it did in November—the monthly crawl would be lowered to 1% from the 2% that has been maintained since January. Consistent with this view, and marking the lower-than-expected inflation reading for November, we revised downward our inflation forecast for 2024 from 122% to 118% and for 2025 from 35% to 30%.”