Angola Commodities December 2022

Angola: Cabinda prices sink in December

The average price for Cabinda oil fell to USD 80.0 per barrel (pb) in December, down from Novembers USD 92.6 pb. This marked a 13.6% decrease month on month. Meanwhile, prices were up 7.5% year on year.

Oil prices plummeted at the tail-end of 2022 on oversupply amid a bleak economic environment. In particular, in global markets, oil for later delivery commanded a premium over oil for prompt delivery, which suggests that supply exceeded demand. This came on the back of subdued activity in the U.S. and China.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output reached 1.11 million barrels per day (mbpd) in December, up from Novembers 1.08 mbpd. Production among other OPEC+ members trended up in general. Output increased in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while it remained stable in Algeria and the UAE, and decreased in Kuwait.

Global oil prices are seen rebounding this year but remaining below the peaks recorded at the start of the war in Ukraine. On the supply side, OPEC+ quotas and sanctions on Russian oil will put upward pressure on prices. Demand-wise, the landscape looks more balanced, as global headwinds will have a negative effect on prices while the economic reopening in China will exert upward pressure. Key factors to watch include the health of the world economy, the evolution of OPEC+ cuts and sanctions on Russia, and output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production this year close to last years levels but below its historical average.

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