Angola Commodities February 2024

Angola: Angolan oil output ticks down in February

Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 84.96 per barrel in March, up 3.9% from February. On 29 March, the commodity traded at USD 87.42 per barrel, up 4.3% from 29 February. Supply cuts by OPEC+ and robust demand drove up prices.

On the production front, Angolan oil output fell to an eight-month low of 1.11 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February from January’s 1.14 mbpd. The reading remained just above 2023’s average level of 1.10 mbpd, but fell short of the 1.12 mbpd expected by the national oil firm.

Oil output should gain steam in 2024 from 2023’s slump to 1.13 mbpd. That said, production will remain below the past 10-year average of 1.44 mbpd, as maturing fields should continue to dent oil sector activity. Angola’s withdrawal from OPEC at the tail-end of 2023 aimed to attract new investments for the oil sector—but it will take time for this increased flexibility to translate into a significant jump in production.

Analysts at Fitch Solutions were more conservative regarding the outlook:

“Despite growing investor interest in the oil and gas sector, most of the new projects will not come online before 2026 at the earliest, and this means that production from maturing oil fields will continue to decline. Angola’s exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in December 2023 freed the country from production quota limits, but our Oil & Gas team still expects that output will decline.”

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