How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
“Spain is not in an economic crisis.” These were the now immortal words of Spain’s then-President José Luiz Rodriguez Zapatero in response to the turmoil which swept through the world economy in 2007–2008 and led to the worst recession Spain has seen for decades.
The Spanish economy boomed throughout the early 2000s, as inward investment from the rest of the EU and low interest rates fed a colossal housing bubble. With the onset of the global financial crisis, the music abruptly stopped. The housing bubble popped spectacularly, GDP nosedived and the unemployment rate soared to over 25%, the highest in the EU. Youth unemployment reached an eye-watering 50%, prompting an exodus of skilled young professionals, with many moving to the colder climes of northern Europe in search of work.
Worryingly, the unemployment rate hit similar heights during the 1990s, and had struggled to dip below 8% even at the peak of giddy economic optimism in the mid-2000s. This hints at deep-seated structural problems in the Spanish labor market, rather than a mere passing phenomenon.
As people’s jobs and livelihoods evaporated during the crisis, popular unrest built. This was encapsulated by what came to be known as the 15-M movement in 2011, which saw millions of Spaniards gather on the streets to protest against their leaders.The Popular Party (PP) rode this wave of discontent to a landslide victory in the 2011 national elections, and embarked on an overhaul of the labor market to get people back to work.
Six years down the line, signs of progress are visible. The unemployment rate, while still painfully high, has dipped. Some of the young people who left the country in droves during the crisis are venturing home. The country is held up by European Institutions as a vindication of liberal policy prescriptions. However, the labor market is far from perfect, and continues to suffer repeated criticism from both domestic and international observers.
To examine the Spanish labor market—and particularly how it serves young people—in more detail, we spoke to Raymond Torres, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting at Funcas, and Associate Professor at the University of Geneva.
Raymond Torres is the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting at Funcas, and Associate Professor at the University of Geneva. Until January 2017, he led the research department of the International Labor Organization. Prior to that, Raymond was the Head of the Employment Analysis and Policy Division of the OECD Economics department, where he led research projects on the Spanish economy, among other subjects. FocusEconomics recognized Funcas as the best overall forecaster of the Spanish economy in its 2016 and 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards.
Raymond is on twitter: Follow
FE: How do you evaluate the success of the Partido Popular’s labor market reforms?
Raymond Torres: The reforms carried out in 2012 were important for changing the business climate, thus nurturing a job-rich recovery. Over the past three years, employment has expanded rapidly, almost as fast as GDP. This has helped make important inroads into overly high unemployment. However, some of the key imbalances have not been altered, notably a high degree of labour market duality and working poverty, notably for youth.
FE: What are the main structural weaknesses in the Spanish labor market?
Torres: The Spanish labour market tends to over-react to economic cycles. In recessions, it tends to lose a disproportionate number of jobs. The opposite occurs in expansionary phases, which are highly job-rich. Successful performers like Germany enjoy a more stable employment situation, thus facilitating the task of economic and labour market policies. The procyclicality of employment in Spain reflects the high incidence of precarious contractual arrangements as well as the limited recourse to job-sharing in the face of recessions.
FE: Is the Spanish labor market failing young people?
Torres: Young people are especially vulnerable to the structural weaknesses of the Spanish labour market. They tend to enter the labour market with short-term jobs, and thus face unstable conditions and high unemployment. In addition, unlike in the most successful countries, there are relatively few opportunities to combine education with work experience. Many young people are over-educated vis-à-vis the kind of jobs which are available in the labour market.
FE: How has the economic situation of young people in Spain evolved since the financial crisis?
Torres: Young people were more affected by the crisis than their adult counterparts. There were times when the unemployment rate of youth thus exceeded 50%. In addition, the majority of those who managed to obtain employment were poorly paid and faced precarious conditions. One salutary reaction, however, is that many young people have preferred to prolong education rather than entering a depressed labour market, which might pave the way to better job prospects in coming years. With the recovery, the employment position of young people has improved significantly, without however reverting to the pre-crisis situation.
FE: Are temporary contracts a help or a hindrance for young people starting their careers?
Torres: A temporary contract can be useful for acquiring work experience and making a first step in the labour market. However they can become dead-ends, with young cycling from one temporary job to the other, with unemployment spells in between. The challenge for Spain is to make temporary jobs stepping stones into more stable positions.
FE: What more could the government do to boost purchasing power and labor market participation rates, particularly among young people?
Torres: A multi-faceted approach is needed. This means, first of all, stronger linkages between education and labour markets, with a view to facilitating transitions. Secondly, barriers to stable job contracts should be tackled, including in terms of combatting abuse of temporary contracts and “false” self-employed (which are proliferating in the digital economy) and making legislation more predictable for enterprises that want to create stable jobs. Third, there is scope for boosting the effectiveness of active labour market policies, which would be especially beneficial for young people. This is feasible: in all these areas, good practices exist.
FE: Do you think that there will be significant reforms to the labour market over the next few years?
Torres: As in other countries, the recovery has reduced pressure over the need for further reforms. However the positions of employers and trade unions are now closer concerning the need for avoiding low-wage traps, improving active labour policies and the role of the public employment service and the importance of addressing skill gaps. Pensions are another area where calls for reform have emerged from all sides. Therefore there may be room for a tradeoff between reforms that tackle labour market dualities with improvements in wages and protection against unemployment. The issue is whether the government will be in a position to seize this opportunity, given the many pitfalls that are typically associated with labour market reforms.
FE: How would you evaluate the role of unions in Spain? Are they effectively fulfilling their mandate of protecting their employees' welfare?
Torres: As in other countries, Spanish unions have faced significant challenges as a result of the period of internal devaluation which followed the sovereign debt crisis. This has meant not only losses in wages and jobs for many workers, especially those on temporary contracts, but also a limited bargaining space. Enterprise federations, too, underwent a difficult period of credit restrictions, forcing many otherwise viable businesses to scale down their operations, and affecting their ability to seat at the bargaining table. In sum, the depth of the crisis did not leave much room for manoeuvre for either unions or employers. The recovery, however, opens up new avenues for social dialogue. Let's hope that the main actors will seize them.
5-year economic forecasts on 30+ economic indicators for 127 countries & 33 commodities.
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist
Date: October 23, 2017
TagsOil Emerging Markets Turkey United States Major Economies Africa Bitcoin Economic Growth (GDP) France Infographic Germany precious metals Italy TPP India Exchange Rate oil prices Brexit Portugal Russia Brazil Euro Area Healthcare USA Colombia Vietnam Latin America United Kingdom Eastern Europe Energy Commodities Base Metals Commodities Forex Precious Metals Commodities Ukraine Investment Housing Market Gold OPEC Unemployment rate Spain Argentina Banking Sector Iran Company News Nordic Economies MENA Eurozone Tunisia UK Australia Inflation Asia Mexico Consensus Forecast South Africa Commodities Venezuela Canada European Union Greece Sub-Saharan Africa Agricultural Commodities G7 Trade China IMF Japan Cryptocurrency
Analysts see base metal prices rising 7.6% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (last month: +6.2% yoy). Read more: https://t.co/KlgaC9IbxP
12 hours ago
The Guatemalan economy is projected to expand 3.1% in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020. Read more: https://t.co/JdM2ep1Com
14 hours ago
Argentina's inflation is expected to be 29.0% at the end of 2019, which is up 1.2 percentage points from last month… https://t.co/6Z6z1lcdgY
16 hours ago
GDP in Brazil is seen growing 2.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast, and expan… https://t.co/hHt506suN2
16 hours ago
Agricultural prices are expected to increase 5.6% year-on-year in Q4 2019 on solid food demand thanks to the world'… https://t.co/rBF0qJ4clw
18 hours ago
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit