Global growth to edge up in 2017
Global growth is likely to strengthen this year but uncertainty over geopolitical issues across the globe, elections in various European countries, Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump as President of the United States, pose risks to growth. Have a look at what is expected for the developed economies & the emerging markets in 2017.
Click the image to open full-size infographic
Global economy suffers another lackluster year in 2016
Global economic growth remained soft in 2016 for numerous reasons which vary by region. Generally, the culprits include structural adjustments in many countries, efforts to reduce overcapacity, recurring natural disasters, geopolitical events—such as Brexit, a coup d’état in Turkey and the ongoing civil war in Syria, among others—and heightened uncertainty related to the U.S. presidential election, as well as potential policy changes in the U.S. and a number of other major economies. Comprehensive data showed that the global economy grew 2.6% year-on-year in Q3 (at current exchange rates) and remains on track to have grown 2.5% overall in 2016, in line with FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast.
Ultra loose monetary policy in an effort to support household consumption and business investment. Eight years after the acute phase of the global financial crisis, the developed world is still using its central banks as a crutch. Throughout developed economies, interest rates are at, or close to, record lows and several are experimenting with avant-garde policies in the hope of stimulating domestic demand. Although it is reasonably clear that such policies are actually supporting economic growth—while introducing distortions in many asset markets—it is still hard to see how these economies will wean themselves off such support in the coming years. In the U.S., the scenario of higher interest rates continues to gain strength. At its last monetary policy meeting of 2016, the Fed announced its decision to raise interest rates, while the accompanying projection materials included an increase in the median estimate for rate hikes for 2017.
Of the world’s richest countries, the U.S. economy is undoubtedly in the best position, even though growth has fallen to a new normal of about 1.5%. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a large “self-financed” fiscal stimulus, while ultimately backtracking on major disruptive policies related to trade or immigration. In Europe, although the latest economic indicators have been resilient, confidence in the Eurozone has continued to be undermined by political risks, the rise of national opt-outs from region-wide policy and the EU’s struggle to deal with Brexit. Such are the threats that Europe faces that questions such as the future of Greece, the region’s immigration crisis and difficulties in its banking sector are likely to be pushed to the margins for now. In the common currency area, economic growth has been plodding at around 1.5% in 2016. The fate of Japan is what European economies are keen to avoid. GDP growth in Japan remained lackluster in 2016, at around 0.5%. The economy continues to be constricted by a shrinking workforce, a rising old-age dependency ratio and tight immigration controls.
2016 proved to be a less uncertain year for most emerging economies than had seemed likely. Expectations of a U.S. tightening cycle in 2016 dissipated as the year progressed—the first rate hike was ultimately postponed until the end of the year—and the greenback rally stalled. This prompted many emerging market central banks to cut interest rates, boosting disposable income. Moreover, investors went back on the hunt for higher-yielding assets, capital flowed back into emerging markets and bond issuance likely reached a record high in 2016. Nonetheless, market participants’ bigger appetite for emerging-market debt was partly due to the absence of returns in developed economies, rather than a vote of confidence for riskier assets.
2017 spotlight on China, Brexit and the EU, and Trump’s administration
Geopolitical factors, elections in various European countries and the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States will all contribute to a highly uncertain global context in 2017. Following an expected 2.5% increase in 2016, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect that global economic growth will nevertheless experience a moderate improvement in 2017 to 2.9% and continue at around this rate in the following two years. The improvement projected in 2017 rests mainly on analysts’ assumptions that the global economy will continue to be bolstered by a continued recovery in developed economies—supported by still accommodative monetary policy in some economies and a renewed fiscal boost in others—and by stronger economic activity in most of the emerging world.
Our 2017 global growth forecast was left unchanged this month, which reflects balanced risks to the outlook. However, certain threats persist. Among these threats are potential stumbling blocks in the Brexit negotiations, the resurfacing of another China-meltdown episode like that seen in early 2016—with a consequent deceleration of its economy—and uncertainty related to the economic policies of the new Trump administration, which have the potential to stir things up drastically in the global economy. In terms of political risks, the wave of change seen in 2016 in a number of countries including the UK, the U.S. and Italy will continue unrelentingly in 2017 and uncertainly related to recent geopolitical events will persist.
Looking at individual countries, this month’s global outlook for 2017 showed an upward revision to growth prospects for major economies such as the Euro area, Japan and the U.S. The GDP growth forecast for the UK also improved from the previous month as concerns over negative spillovers from the Brexit vote continued to reduce.
Among major emerging economies, the economic outlook for Brazil, Russia and India deteriorated from the previous month’s assessment, while China’s GDP growth projection remained stable. At a regional level, only growth prospects for Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa deteriorated from the previous month’s Consensus.
Date: January 5, 2017
TagsMexicoIndiaInvestmentSpainUSATradeConsensus ForecastOilprecious metalsHealthcareEuropean UnionPortugalMajor EconomiesBase Metals CommoditiesFranceG7TPPUnited StatesCanadaOPECHousing MarketNordic EconomiesColombiaBanking SectorExchange RateInflationForexAfricaAustraliaUKBitcoinAgricultural CommoditiesBrexitEconomic Growth (GDP)Unemployment rateSub-Saharan AfricaMENAInfographicPrecious Metals CommoditiesLatin AmericaUkraineTunisiaVenezuelaUnited KingdomBrazilEuro AreaIranoil pricesChinaVietnamEmerging MarketsEastern EuropeJapanItalyEnergy CommoditiesGreeceCommoditiesSouth AfricaTurkeyGoldGermanyEurozoneAsiaCryptocurrencyIMFCompany NewsRussiaArgentina
Base metal prices are seen rising 5.9% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous month: +6.2% yoy). Read more: https://t.co/KlgaC9IbxP
1 hour ago
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
Inflation in Venezuela is seen surging to over 70,000,000% by the end of the year. Read more: https://t.co/2qYlAPNaGu
3 hours ago
Implementation of sorely-needed economic reforms remains pivotal to Brazil's outlook. Read more: https://t.co/enT2Ebv0Ew
5 hours ago
- Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts
- Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?
- Which countries have the highest public debt levels?
- Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts
- Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019
- Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.
- Vietnam Poised to Profit from Free Trade Agreement Opportunities
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit