Unemployment in USA
USA - Unemployment
Job gains exceed expectations again in October
Total non-farm payrolls increased by 261,000 in October, down from 315,000 in September but beating market expectations. Employment gains were particularly strong in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in October from 3.5% in September.
All in all, the data shows the labor market remained resilient at the outset of Q4. Looking ahead, the Consensus is for the labor market to lose steam heading into 2023 as the economy slackens amid higher interest rates, with the unemployment rate forecast to move back above 4% next year.
On the outlook, TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said:
“Job growth continues to run well in excess of a pace consistent with trend growth in labor supply. This cannot be sustained indefinitely. Even with some reversal in last month's labor force numbers, the participation rate among the core working age (25-54 years old) still sits at its 2019 average. This suggest further gains in labor supply are likely to be more tepid, which should exert a more meaningful drag on employment.”
FocusEconomics panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 4.3% in 2023, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.5% in 2024.
United States - Unemployment Data
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|Bond Yield||1.92||-0.43 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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November 16, 2022
Retail sales increased 1.3% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in October (September: 0.0% mom).
November 10, 2022
Inflation came in at 7.7% in October, down from September’s 8.2%.
November 4, 2022
Total non-farm payrolls increased by 261,000 in October, down from 315,000 in September but beating market expectations.
November 2, 2022
At its meeting on 1–2 November, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.75–4.00%—the fourth successive 75 basis-point hike. The decision to hike was aimed at containing inflation, which has been running well over the Central Bank’s 2.0% target in recent months due to external price pressures and the tight domestic labor market.
October 27, 2022
GDP rebounded in Q3, expanding 2.6% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR), contrasting the 0.6% contraction recorded in the second quarter and coming in slightly above market expectations. Household spending increased 1.4% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's 2.0% expansion, with consumption likely weighed on somewhat by elevated inflation.