Philippines Inflation

Inflation picks up in April from the prior month

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 7.2% on a year-on-year basis in April, following a 4.1% rise in the prior month. April's reading was the strongest since March 2023 and exceeded market expectations of a softer acceleration. As such, inflation rose further above the ceiling of Bangko Sentral Pilipinas’ 2.0–4.0% target range. Relative to the prior month's data, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+6.0% in annual terms vs +2.9% in March), clothing and footwear (+2.9% vs +2.6% in March), housing and utilities (+8.2% vs +4.7% in March) and transport (+21.4% vs +9.9% in March). Lastly, consumer prices were up 2.63% in April in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms, following a 1.37% rise in the prior month.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting commented on the outlook: “The sharperthanexpected jump in April inflation has forced us to revise our fullyear 2026 inflation forecast upward again to 7.5% (from 5.5% revised in Apr; BSP est: 6.3%; 2025: 1.7%), marking the highest annual rate since 2008. The revision reflects the unresolved Middle East conflict, ongoing disruptions to oil and gas supply, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which are expected to keep global energy prices elevated in the near term. Spillover effects, compounded by low base effects and continued PHP weakness, could push inflation toward— or above—10% by yearend should the conflict prolong further. An El Niñoinduced dry spell, which is set to start in Jun, may also weigh on farm output and prices in the near term.”

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