GDP in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan - GDP
Economic conditions continue to improve in H2 2016
Kazakhstan’s economic growth continued to improve in the second half of 2016, aided by an increase in oil prices and a stabilization in the country’s financial conditions. Comprehensive GDP data—on an expenditure basis—showed that the economy increased 0.4% in the January–September period from the same period of the previous year. The result fared slightly better than the 0.3% rise the markets had expected and followed a mild 0.1% increase recorded in the first six months of the year. Kazakhstan reports growth on an accumulated basis and in full year 2015 overall economic growth was 1.2% (2014: +4.2 year-on-year).
The principal drag on growth in the nine months up to September was the external sector, while growth in private consumption was subdued, increasing just 1.0% annually in the January–September period as household spending patterns continued to adapt to a slowdown in inflation and credit conditions, given high interest rates. Meanwhile, a new environment of higher oil and gas prices prompted a mild improvement in government spending—mainly in infrastructure—and gross fixed investment.
On the external front, exports of goods and services decreased 5.2% year-on-year between January and September, which was nonetheless better than the contractions of 8.6% in the first half of 2016 and 8.2% in the January–September 2015 period. Moreover, imports contracted 2.1% in the nine months to September. Net exports continue to drag on the economy, subtracting 2.8 percentage points from overall economic growth in January–September 2016.
Following an expected slowdown in 2016, the government expects economic activity to pick up momentum and expand 1.9% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018. The economy is expected to be supported by a recovery in oil production following the opening of the Kashagan oil field in Q4 2016. Kazakh officials expect Kashagan will only produce about 150 thousand barrels a day in 2017, while a company from the consortium is projecting output of between 350 and 370 thousand barrels a day. Also, a government stimulus program announced in 2016 will continue to support investment and the construction sector, helping to offset low bank lending.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan expects economic growth to range between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2017. The analysts we surveyed this month expect the economy to increase 2.1% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2018, the panel sees the economy picking up pace and increasing 2.8%.
Kazakhstan - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.2||4.6||5.8||4.1||1.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Kazakhstan GDP Chart
|Exchange Rate||332.4||0.14 %||Jan 20|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.0 %||Jan 20|
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
January 4, 2017
Consumer prices in Kazakhstan rose 0.9% from the previous month in December, which came in below the 1.2% increase observed in November.
December 28, 2016
Kazakhstan’s economic growth continued to improve in the second half of 2016, aided by an increase in oil prices and a stabilization in the country’s financial conditions.
December 15, 2016
Kazakhstan’s industrial production increased 1.1% year-on-year in November, following a 1.2% expansion in October.
November 16, 2016
Kazakhstan’s industrial production picked up momentum and accelerated from a 0.1% year-on-year increase in September to a 1.2% expansion in October.
November 14, 2016
At its final monetary policy meeting of year, held on 14 November, the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced its decision to cut the one-day repo rate—also known as the base rate—by another 50 basis points to 12.00%, in line with market expectations.