GDP in Colombia
Colombia - GDP
Economy gains some momentum in Q4 but growth remains subdued
Q4 GDP figures confirmed that the Colombian economy continues to struggle with low oil prices two years after they first started to fall. While GDP grew 1.6% year-on-year in Q4, which was above market expectations of a 1.5% reading and Q3’s 1.2% growth, overall GDP growth for 2016 totaled 2.0%—the slowest rate since 2009. Despite the seemingly poor result, Colombia’s economy fared better in 2016 compared to other commodity-dependent economies in the region, thanks largely to the country’s resilient total consumption and a weaker peso which fueled net exports.
The fourth quarter’s mild acceleration was mainly driven by private consumption—which accounts for around 60% of GDP— while falling fixed investment kept a lid on growth. Private consumption growth quickened to 2.0% in Q4 from 1.3% in Q3; possibly a reflection of consumers’ anticipation of the upcoming VAT hike. Therefore, this improvement in private consumption could be short-lived. In addition, government consumption remained subdued in Q4 at Q3’s 0.2% growth, which was the lowest reading in over a decade. Although fixed investment continued to drag on growth, it improved markedly in Q4 as it reached the highest figure in four quarters (Q4: -2.9% yoy, Q3: -3.5% yoy).
Taking a look at the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services worsened from Q3’s 2.8% contraction to a 3.2% fall in Q4. While imports also declined in Q4, they did so at a much slower rate compared to the previous quarter (Q4: -4.2% yoy, Q3: -11.1% yoy), thus the external sector’s contribution to growth was fairly limited.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy expanded 1.0% over the previous quarter in Q4, which was above Q3’s flat reading.
Colombia’s economy should see a mild pickup this year as the country gradually recovers from the shocks that affected growth in 2016, such as low oil prices, a prolonged drought and disruptive truckers’ strike. Furthermore, fixed investment is now expected to contribute to growth, as spending on the country’s ambitious 4G infrastructure program should pick up this year.
Against this backdrop, Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will expand 2.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1%.
Colombia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||4.0||4.9||4.4||3.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Colombia GDP Chart
Source: Statistical Institute (DANE).
|Bond Yield||6.37||0.79 %||May 24|
|Exchange Rate||2,907||-0.01 %||May 24|
|Stock Market||10,758||0.01 %||May 24|
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May 16, 2017
The Fedesarrollo consumer sentiment index rose from March’s minus 21.1 points to minus 12.8 points in April, marking a four-month high.
May 12, 2017
In March, industrial production swung to a 4.8% expansion annually (February: -3.2% year-on-year), after two months of contraction.
May 5, 2017
In April, consumer prices rose 0.47% from the previous month, which mirrored March’s result and overshot market expectations of a 0.38% reading.
May 3, 2017
In March, exports grew a staggering 37.9% from the same month of the previous year, which followed a 15.8% expansion recorded in February.
April 19, 2017
The Fedesarrollo consumer sentiment index rose from February’s minus 24.3 points to minus 21.1 points in March, marking a three-month high.