GDP in Colombia
Colombia - GDP
Economy gains some momentum in Q4 but growth remains subdued
Q4 GDP figures confirmed that the Colombian economy continues to struggle with low oil prices two years after they first started to fall. While GDP grew 1.6% year-on-year in Q4, which was above market expectations of a 1.5% reading and Q3’s 1.2% growth, overall GDP growth for 2016 totaled 2.0%—the slowest rate since 2009. Despite the seemingly poor result, Colombia’s economy fared better in 2016 compared to other commodity-dependent economies in the region, thanks largely to the country’s resilient total consumption and a weaker peso which fueled net exports.
The fourth quarter’s mild acceleration was mainly driven by private consumption—which accounts for around 60% of GDP— while falling fixed investment kept a lid on growth. Private consumption growth quickened to 2.0% in Q4 from 1.3% in Q3; possibly a reflection of consumers’ anticipation of the upcoming VAT hike. Therefore, this improvement in private consumption could be short-lived. In addition, government consumption remained subdued in Q4 at Q3’s 0.2% growth, which was the lowest reading in over a decade. Although fixed investment continued to drag on growth, it improved markedly in Q4 as it reached the highest figure in four quarters (Q4: -2.9% yoy, Q3: -3.5% yoy).
Taking a look at the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services worsened from Q3’s 2.8% contraction to a 3.2% fall in Q4. While imports also declined in Q4, they did so at a much slower rate compared to the previous quarter (Q4: -4.2% yoy, Q3: -11.1% yoy), thus the external sector’s contribution to growth was fairly limited.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy expanded 1.0% over the previous quarter in Q4, which was above Q3’s flat reading.
Colombia’s economy should see a mild pickup this year as the country gradually recovers from the shocks that affected growth in 2016, such as low oil prices, a prolonged drought and disruptive truckers’ strike. Furthermore, fixed investment is now expected to contribute to growth, as spending on the country’s ambitious 4G infrastructure program should pick up this year.
Against this backdrop, Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will expand 2.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1%.
Colombia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||4.0||4.9||4.4||3.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Colombia GDP Chart
Source: Statistical Institute (DANE).
|Bond Yield||6.74||0.52 %||Mar 27|
|Exchange Rate||2,923||0.87 %||Mar 27|
|Stock Market||10,072||0.02 %||Mar 27|
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March 14, 2017
In January, industrial production declined 0.2% annually, which contrasted the 2.7% increase observed in December and marked the worst result since July 2016.
March 2, 2017
In January, Colombian exports grew a massive 32.9% from the same month of the previous year, which followed the similarly impressive 32.7% expansion recorded in December and marked the largest monthly gain since November 2011.
March 1, 2017
Q4 GDP figures confirmed that the Colombian economy continues to struggle with low oil prices two years after they first started to fall.
February 24, 2017
The board of the Central Bank (BanRep) decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in a 4-to-2 decision at its 24 February monetary policy meeting, which was the second one to be headed by recently appointed Governor Juan José Echavarría.
February 17, 2017
In December, industrial production rose 2.2% annually, up from November’s revised 1.8% increase (previously reported: +1.6% year-on-year).