GDP in Colombia
Colombia - GDP
Growth slows to over eight-year low in Q1
Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that the Colombian economy continues to struggle with low oil prices two years after they first started to fall. GDP growth slowed from 2.0% in Q4 to just 1.1% in the first quarter of 2017, the worst performance since December 2008. The dismal print was actually in line with market forecasts as there was widespread expectation that the tax increase approved by Congress in December would impact consumption.
The first quarter’s deceleration was mainly driven by weak private consumption—which accounts for around 60% of GDP. Private consumption growth slowed from 2.3% in Q4 to 1.1% in Q1, which reflected the negative effect of the three-percentage-point hike in the Value-added Tax implemented recently. Therefore, private consumption should gradually improve in the coming quarters. In contrast, government consumption picked up pace in Q1 as it grew 2.1%, a marked improvement from Q4’s 0.2%, which had been the lowest reading in over a decade. Although fixed investment continued to drag on growth, it seems to be on its way to a full recovery as it improved for a third consecutive quarter in Q1 (Q1: -0.7% year-on-year, Q4: -2.9% yoy).
Taking a look at the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services worsened from Q4’s 3.4% contraction to a 3.6% fall in Q1. While imports also declined in Q1, they did so at a much slower rate compared to the previous quarter (Q1: -0.4% yoy, Q4: -4.3% yoy). As a result, the external sector deducted 0.5 percentage points from growth (Q4: +0.6 percentage points)
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy contracted 0.2% over the previous quarter in Q1, which contrasted Q4’s 1.0% expansion.
Despite Q1’s disappointing print, Colombia’s economy should see a modest pickup this year as the Andean country gradually recovers from the shocks that affected growth in 2016, such as low oil prices, a prolonged drought and a disruptive truckers’ strike. Furthermore, fixed investment is expected to contribute to growth this year, as spending on the country’s ambitious 4G (cuarta generación) infrastructure program ramps up.
Against this backdrop, Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will expand 2.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1%.
Colombia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||4.0||4.9||4.4||3.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Colombia GDP Chart
Source: Statistical Institute (DANE).
|Bond Yield||7.01||1.30 %||Jul 26|
|Exchange Rate||3,017||-0.44 %||Jul 26|
|Stock Market||10,914||-0.25 %||Jul 26|
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July 6, 2017
In June, consumer prices rose 0.10% from the previous month, which was below May’s 0.47% reading and market expectations of a 0.70% increase.
June 5, 2017
In May, consumer prices rose 0.23% from the previous month, which was below April’s 0.47% reading and market expectations of a 0.32% increase.
June 2, 2017
In April, exports grew just 6.8% from the same month of the previous year, which followed the staggering 37.9% expansion recorded in March and was the lowest reading since October 2016.
May 26, 2017
The board of the Central Bank (BanRep) decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% at its 26 May monetary policy meeting, which was in line with market expectations.
May 16, 2017
The Fedesarrollo consumer sentiment index rose from March’s minus 21.1 points to minus 12.8 points in April, marking a four-month high.