Zambia Economic Outlook
October 18, 2016On 9 October, Finance Minister Felix Mutati announced that the government will cut subsidies amounting to around USD 1.0 billion. Subsidies currently account for about 60% of the government’s budget. While the minister highlighted that the process would be done gradually and that it would incorporate a social safety program to reduce the impact on the poor, it risks increasing social tensions. The decision is part of a planned economic recovery plan, which includes a monetary aid package from the IMF worth between USD 1.2 billion and USD 1.5 billion. The package should help revive the economy, which is suffering an economic slowdown due to the fall in the price of its key export, copper, as well as low levels of rainfall, which have hampered the country’s hydropower output. Zambia and the IMF had begun talks back in April and they plan to finalize the deal by the end of the year.
Zambia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,730||1,811||1,898||1,792||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||23.6||25.5||27.6||26.9||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.3||6.7||6.7||5.6||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.8||-2.8||-6.2||-6.0||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||20.8||24.9||26.5||35.1||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||19.9||30.0||11.8||11.3||24.9|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||6.0||7.3||7.1||7.9||21.1|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.4||6.6||7.0||7.8||10.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||9.10||9.30||9.80||12.50||15.50|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||5.13||5.20||5.55||6.40||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4.86||5.14||5.39||6.16||8.66|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||2.3||2.3||0.3||1.5||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||0.6||0.6||0.1||0.4||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||1.9||0.6||0.4||0.1||-1.8|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.1||9.4||10.4||9.4||8.1|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.2||8.8||10.0||9.3||9.9|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||36.8||2.7||11.4||-9.4||-14.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||47.0||21.3||13.9||-6.9||6.2|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.3||3.0||2.7||3.1||3.0|
5 years of Zambia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||28.00||11.55 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||9.91||0.0 %||Oct 19|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.0 %||Oct 19|
Zambia Economic Growth
October 18, 2016The economy will remain highly dependent on the evolution of copper prices. However, the IMF loan could provide the country a much-needed respite. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists see economic growth accelerating to 4.5%.