Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

GDP rebounded in Q2 as the easing of restrictions domestically and abroad supported activity. In Q2, both private consumption and fixed investment expanded, after declining in the first quarter. On the external front, exports growth slowed, while imports declined notably in the second quarter. Turning to Q3, economic output is likely losing some momentum but should remain relatively healthy due to upbeat investment and household spending. In August, the KOF Economic Barometer dropped to the lowest level since February, but was still above its long-term average suggesting economic conditions remain bright. Moreover, both the manufacturing and services PMIs averaged slightly higher in July–August compared to the previous quarter, pointing to a robust expansion in production. That said, new Covid-19 cases at home remain stubbornly high, threatening tighter restrictions ahead.

Switzerland Economic Growth

The economy should grow briskly this year as external demand recovers and domestic restrictions are eased. However, the ongoing rise in Covid-19 cases is a risk. Next year, GDP growth should moderate, but will continue to expand at a strong pace due to high accumulated household savings and pent-up demand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 3.5% in 2021. In 2022, the panel expects GDP to grow 2.9%, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast.

Switzerland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.28.38.48.58.5
GDP per capita (USD)82,47980,64180,77883,09782,311
GDP (USD bn)679671680705703
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.31.71.82.81.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.20.81.80.80.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.71.41.21.01.2
Investment (annual variation in %)2.32.53.41.10.8
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.66.3-0.22.90.5
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.55.7-0.6-0.3-1.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.00.15.25.44.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.3-2.00.10.00.4
Unemployment Rate3.23.33.12.62.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.60.31.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.028.929.3-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)1.43.94.03.50.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.30.00.80.70.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-0.40.50.90.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.7-1.30.01.3-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.8-6.814.1-10.226.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.091.071.171.131.09
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.071.091.111.161.11
Current Account (% of GDP)11.39.96.48.212.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)77.066.243.357.686.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)36.832.829.731.236.1

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Switzerland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.516.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate0.97-0.54 %Jan 01

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