Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

May 17, 2022

High-frequency indicators for Q3 FY 2022 (January–March) painted an upbeat panorama. In March, the manufacturing PMI registered its highest reading since records began amid a significant improvement in new orders and output, while the unemployment rate fell to an all-time low in the same month. Moreover, in February, exports grew at the swiftest pace since September 2018 and outpaced import growth in the process. Nonetheless, economic activity growth moderated notably in February, and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine provided a counterforce to the record-setting improvements. Private spending was likely capped as high commodity prices drove inflation to a 13-year high in March. Meanwhile, the Department of Economic Development and Commerce announced a USD 25 million investment in recovery funds for marine tourism, renewable energy and research for the marine economy.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

GDP is projected to grow at a faster rate in FY 2022. Fully lifted travel restrictions and ample fiscal support for tourism should buoy the external sector, while newly-available public funds freed up by debt restructuring should further support growth. That said, persistent pandemic-related risks and elevated oil prices weigh on the outlook. Our panelists forecast that GDP will expand 3.7% in FY 2022, which is up 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.8% in FY 2023.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GNP per capita (USD)20,04020,54420,76721,22822,874
GNP (USD bn)69.670.069.067.870.8
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.8-1.6-3.2-4.21.5
Unemployment Rate12.911.711.510.38.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)95.191.892.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.7-
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.428.425.214.114.3
Exports (USD billion)69.571.771.160.663.7
Imports (USD billion)43.143.345.946.549.4
Exports (annual variation in %)11.53.3-0.9-14.85.1
Imports (annual variation in %)

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