Mozambique Economic Forecast

Mozambique Economic Outlook

September 21, 2021

Following Q1’s marginal bounce-back, the economy expanded at a quicker pace in annual terms in the second quarter. The acceleration was largely attributed to rebounding output in the extractive industries; construction sector; trade and repair activity; and the hospitality sector. Meanwhile, production in the agricultural sector and activity in financial services sector expanded at a weaker rate, weighing on growth in turn. Moving to the third quarter, available data paints a mixed picture. Following a healthy expansion in July, operating conditions in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in August, as surging numbers of Covid-19 cases in the period resulted in tighter curbs, dampening output and sales. However, new infections have eased markedly since then, which should provide some breathing space for the pandemic-battered economy.

Mozambique Economic Growth

GDP is expected to rebound this year, in line with recovering domestic and foreign activity. Next year, economic growth should shift into a higher gear as the progressing Coral South LNG project, scheduled to come online in 2022, buoys private sector activity. That said, the ongoing conflict in the north of the country and Covid-19 flare-ups remain key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.7% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Mozambique Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)28.028.829.530.331.2
GDP per capita (USD)579417449484483
GDP (USD bn)16.212.013.314.715.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.73.83.73.42.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-16.8-9.4-5.812.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.7-5.5-3.2-7.1-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.213010199.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.623.75.73.53.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.619.915.13.92.8
standing lending facility (%, eop)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9771.3858.5361.5862.43
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)39.3962.7863.4360.4562.45
Current Account (% of GDP)-36.9-32.1-19.5-30.6-20.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-3.8-2.6-4.5-3.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-1.4-0.5-1.0-2.1
Exports (USD billion)3.43.34.75.24.7
Imports (USD billion)7.64.75.26.26.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.8-2.542.010.0-9.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.7-37.510.418.110.2
International Reserves (USD)2.62.13.43.13.9
External Debt (% of GDP)85.6116115104-  

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Mozambique Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate62.430.48 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 06

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