Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

November 30, 2021

Available indicators suggest that economic growth eased in the third quarter. A significantly softer expansion in retail sales, against the backdrop of rising inflation in the quarter, hints at weakened household spending. Moreover, a milder rise in industrial output and a marked slowdown in merchandise import growth suggest that domestic demand faltered in the period. More positively, a stronger increase in merchandise exports over the prior quarter will have buoyed the external sector. Turning to Q4, a deal with Gazprom struck in early November, coupled with a disbursement of EUR 70 million for debt repayments to the Russian gas company, will have somewhat eased fears over gas supply shortages. Meanwhile, on 15 November the country joined the EU Covid-19 digital certificate scheme, facilitating travel to and from associated countries, which bodes well for tourism activity.

Moldova Economic Growth

The economy is seen growing at a healthy pace in 2022, in line with recovering activity, enabled by the eventual lifting of Covid-19 restrictions. Moreover, vaccination progress in key trading partners should spur foreign demand and inflows of remittances, notably from Russia. Further Covid-19 flare-ups pose a key downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2023.

Moldova Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,1642,2862,7943,2293,286
GDP per capita (EUR)1,9772,0592,4252,7353,025
GDP (EUR bn)7.07.38.69.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.34.44.74.33.6
Unemployment Rate4.23.83.32.94.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.9-0.8-0.9-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.835.631.829.727.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.314.310.08.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.62.47.30.97.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.76.46.63.14.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)19.509.006.506.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.7019.9217.1017.0417.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)21.3920.9520.5219.5519.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)20.7521.9920.7919.8419.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.0-3.5-6.1-10.6-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.1-2.6-3.3-3.3
Exports (USD billion)1.51.61.92.02.1
Imports (USD billion)3.63.64.45.35.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.13.419.85.87.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.30.121.719.13.0
International Reserves (USD)1.72.22.83.03.1
External Debt (% of GDP)79.276.368.764.264.2

Sample Report

5 years of Moldova economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Moldova Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate17.150.03 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form