Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Following swifter GDP growth in Q4 2021 due to stronger domestic dynamics, the breakout of war in neighboring Ukraine has weighed heavily on the economy so far this year. After industrial production and retail sales rose solidly in January, both swung into contractions in February and remained subdued in March. Similarly, the Russian invasion continued to hinder the external sector, with the trade deficit widening through March amid international sanctions on Russia—formerly one of Moldova’s key trading partners. To make matters worse, inflation surged to historic levels in the same month and hit yet another record high in April. On a positive note, on 12 May, the IMF approved an approximately EUR 135 million disbursement, and the EBRD lent EUR 50 million, in efforts to help authorities cope with the economic fallout stemming from the war in Ukraine.

Moldova Economic Growth

Due to the region-wide impact of the war, our panelists recently slashed their 2022 GDP forecasts and now expect the economy to shrink slightly this year. Record-breaking inflation, the refugee crisis and severe trade disruptions bode ill for activity. Moreover, tensions with the Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.3% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, GDP is expected to grow 2.9%.

Moldova Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,1642,2862,7943,2293,286
GDP per capita (EUR)1,9772,0592,4252,7353,025
GDP (EUR bn)7.07.38.69.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.34.44.74.33.6
Unemployment Rate4.23.83.32.94.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.9-0.8-0.9-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.835.631.829.727.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.314.310.08.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.62.47.30.97.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.76.46.63.14.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)19.509.006.506.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.7019.9217.1017.0417.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)21.3920.9520.5219.5519.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)20.7521.9920.7919.8419.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.0-3.5-6.1-10.6-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.1-2.6-3.3-3.3
Exports (USD billion)1.51.61.92.02.1
Imports (USD billion)3.63.64.45.35.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.13.419.85.87.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.30.121.719.13.0
International Reserves (USD)1.72.22.83.03.1
External Debt (% of GDP)79.276.368.764.264.2

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Moldova Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate17.150.03 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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