Hungary Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016Hungary’s economy regained traction in Q2, expanding 2.6% in annual terms (Q1: +1.1%). A notable rebound in the external sector, which was supported by a recovery in the auto industry, and buoyant private consumption helped to overcome a sharp contraction in fixed investment due to lower EU funding. The picture for Q3 is mixed. A strengthening labor market, as evidenced by July’s multi-year low unemployment rate, bodes well for household spending. However, signs for caution came from July’s slumps in industrial production and exports as well as September’s subdued economic sentiment. S&P Global Ratings surprisingly decided to upgrade Hungary’s credit rating to investment grade in September, citing improvements in economic growth and the country’s fiscal position. The forint appreciated in response to the upgrade. In the political arena, 98% of the voters who participated in a referendum on 2 October voted against EU migration quotas. However, the low turnout of 40% made the result unbinding and represents a setback for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Hungary Economy Data
5 years of Hungary economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.00||-1.32 %||Oct 20|
|Exchange Rate||281.2||0.53 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||29,341||0.59 %||Oct 20|
Hungary Economic Growth
October 4, 2016A sharp deceleration in fixed investment will cause GDP growth to slow this year. The economy will still expand at a robust pace, on the back of healthy private consumption, fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy. Our panelists forecast that Hungary’s economy will expand 2.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, they see GDP growth picking up to 2.6%.
Hungary Economic News
October 11, 2016
In September, consumer prices rose 0.2% from the previous month, contrasting August’s 0.4% decrease.
October 7, 2016
According to preliminary data released by the Statistical Institute (KSH) on 7 October, industrial output in August rose a working-day adjusted 3.5% from the same month last year, rebounding from July’s 0.1% decrease and marking a four-month high. On a monthly basis, industrial production increased a seasonally- and working-day adjusted 1.6% in August, which followed July’s 0.3% decrease.
September 26, 2016
The GKI economic sentiment indicator advanced slightly from August’s minus 3.9 points, which was the lowest reading in over two years, to the still-low level of minus 3.6 points in September.
Hungary: Central Bank leaves base rate at 0.90%, continues easing monetary conditions by capping main deposit facility
September 20, 2016
The Central Bank of Hungary (NBH) held all rates constant at its 20 September monetary policy meeting, but continued easing monetary policy conditions by using unconventional monetary policy instruments.
September 9, 2016
In August, consumer prices fell 0.4% over the previous month, coming in below July’s softer 0.2% decrease.