Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

Recent data suggests that the economy lost traction in the third quarter, after GDP expanded at the swiftest rate on record in Q2. Industrial output grew at a markedly softer pace in July compared to the previous quarter, while economic activity growth slid to a five-month low in August. Moreover, consumer lending shrank in both July and August—the first time in over five years that credit levels have not grown—likely curbing private spending in the quarter. Meanwhile, the country is currently in the midst of its fourth—and deadliest—wave of Covid-19 infections, with October seeing the highest number of both cases and deaths in a single day since the start of the pandemic. Furthermore, vaccine hesitancy has continued to run deep among citizens, likely dragging on the overall campaign and resulting in the slowest vaccination rate in the region.

Armenia Economic Growth

In 2022, GDP growth is set to accelerate following this year’s expected rebound, as restrictions are lifted and activity strengthens. Household consumption and capital spending are projected to drive the recovery. Nevertheless, a sluggish vaccine rollout and reignited political tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan pose downside risks to the outlook. Our panelists see GDP growth at 5.4% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in 2022.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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