Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

GDP remained below its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2021. In H1 2022, hydrocarbons, which account for 95% of the country’s exports, are driving the recovery. OPEC+ continues to raise oil production quotas, and EU demand for Algerian gas is rising as it seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. Oil output was up 12.6% year-on-year in Q1, with gas exports to Europe rising by over 9% yoy in the same quarter. Near decade-high energy prices are fortifying the external and fiscal balances and spurring new hydrocarbon investment, boding well for future output. However, hydrocarbons output growth will be limited by weak prior investment and the closure of a pipeline last year. In the non-hydrocarbons sector, activity is more subdued. The war in Ukraine has caused food prices to soar, likely hitting private spending, despite recent VAT cuts and the introduction of a new unemployment benefit.

Algeria Economic Growth

This year, growth will be supported by larger OPEC+ quotas, increased European demand and higher investment in the hydrocarbons sector. However, the GDP expansion is likely to be among the lowest in MENA, as a poor business environment and high levels of corruption curtail activity. FocusEconomics panelists foresee the economy growing 3.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2023.

Algeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)40.040.841.742.643.4
GDP per capita (USD)4,1533,9194,0124,0813,914
GDP (USD bn)166160167174170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.73.21.31.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.62.62.22.71.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.73.53.43.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.91.52.4-1.52.7
Unemployment Rate11.210.511.711.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.3-13.1-6.6-4.5-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.720.527.138.146.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.73.514.40.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.45.85.93.52.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)107.1110.4114.8118.3119.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)100.4109.4110.9116.6119.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.4-16.4-13.2-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.3-26.2-22.1-16.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-18.1-20.1-14.4-7.5-  
Exports (USD billion)34.629.334.641.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.749.449.048.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-42.5-15.218.018.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.8-6.1-0.9-0.9-  
International Reserves (USD)14511497.680.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)2.83.43.43.3-  

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Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

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