Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

September 7, 2021

Q1 ushered in an economic recovery, with growth returning for the first time since the start of the pandemic amid improvements in private consumption, fixed capital investment and exports. Falling imports and heftier government spending also contributed. Looking at the breakdown by industry, the energy sector was the key driver. However, the reading was flattered by a base effect, while weak wage growth and elevated unemployment will have kept a lid on domestic demand. Looking beyond Q1, looser restrictions from late March and the reopening of borders from June should have aided activity. Moreover, oil output continued to rise through July. However, the nightly curfew was extended in July and August amid a rock-bottom vaccination rate and steadily rising Covid-19 cases. Lastly, recent wildfires could stoke ongoing social discontent and threaten economic and political stability.

Algeria Economic Growth

In 2021, the economy is foreseen growing at a reasonable pace as private consumption and fixed capital investment recover somewhat, following the fall in demand seen last year. Nonetheless, social divisions, uncertainty regarding virus mutations and the vaccine program, plus still-subdued oil output, will all keep activity muted. FocusEconomics panelists foresee the economy growing 2.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.0% in 2022.

Algeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)40.040.841.742.643.4
GDP per capita (USD)4,1533,9194,0124,0813,914
GDP (USD bn)166160167174170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.73.21.31.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.62.62.22.71.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.73.53.43.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.91.52.4-1.52.7
Unemployment Rate11.210.511.711.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.3-13.1-6.6-4.5-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.720.527.138.146.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.73.514.40.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.45.85.93.52.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)107.1110.4114.8118.3119.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)100.4109.4110.9116.6119.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.4-16.4-13.2-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.3-26.2-22.1-16.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-18.1-20.1-14.4-7.5-  
Exports (USD billion)34.629.334.641.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.749.449.048.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-42.5-15.218.018.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.8-6.1-0.9-0.9-  
International Reserves (USD)14511497.680.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)2.83.43.43.3-  

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Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

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