Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for regional GDP growth to accelerate through 2027, hitting a six-year high in that year. The improvement will be spearheaded by strong population growth, higher disposable income and economic reforms that lead to increased investment attractiveness. Downside risks include extreme weather plus social and political uncertainty.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation trended down further in August, having peaked at 17.0% in November 2022. In September, in over half of the countries with available data, inflation either stabilized or waned further. Our Consensus is for regional inflation to continue trending down through the end of our forecast horizon in 2030. Extreme weather and weaker-than-expected currencies are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2017 to 2015.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.1 | 47.9 | 45.4 | 48.5 | 49.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.2 | 55.8 | 55.1 | 55.5 | 59.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 235 | 291 | 350 | 330 | 331 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 14.38 | 14.92 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,959 | 2,064 | 1,976 | 1,703 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 4.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 13.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -4.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 336 | 354 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -9 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 19 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.9 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | 167 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |