Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect regional GDP growth to gain traction through 2027. Strong population growth, increased investment attractiveness, economic diversification efforts, as well as ongoing economic reforms and progress on debt deals will drive the upturn. Greater protectionism abroad, extreme weather plus social and political uncertainty pose downside risks.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation rose only slightly to 9.4% in July (June: 9.3%), and in the majority of countries with available data for August inflation either moderated further or stabilized. Our Consensus is for regional inflation to ease this year from last due to weaker commodity prices. Extreme weather remains an upside risk, however.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 48.5 | 45.9 | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,766 | 1,956 | 2,060 | 1,977 | 1,710 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.4 | 54.5 | 54.7 | 54.3 | 59.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.6 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 15.6 | 12.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -3.8 | -4.0 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -9 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 20 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 334 | 353 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 231 | 284 | 342 | 320 | 321 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 14.38 | 14.92 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | 167 |