Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Population growth, debt deals, economic reforms and increased investment attractiveness will push 2025 regional GDP growth to a three-year high. Still, downside risks to the outlook are mounting due to heightened trade uncertainty, wobbly debt sustainability and the expiration of the U.S.’ preferential investment and trade policy for sub-Saharan Africa at end-2025.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
After easing in March, inflation further cooled in over half of the countries with available data for April. Past interest rate increases will drive the regional slowdown in inflation this year. Extreme weather, weaker-than-anticipated domestic currencies and faster-than-projected private consumption growth are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 335 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 13.97 | 14.31 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,956 | 2,059 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 12.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.6 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 217 | 268 | 323 | 303 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | - | - |