Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for regional GDP growth to hit a three-year high in 2025, spurred by lower inflation and interest rates buttressing household spending and investment in turn. Additional impetus will stem from economic reforms, progress in debt deals shoring investor sentiment, and population growth. Downside risks include extreme weather and changes in U.S. policies.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation waned to a six-month low of 9.3% in June, a trend that continued in the vast majority of countries with available data for July. Weaker commodity prices will drive a slowdown in inflation across most of the region this year. Upside risks include extreme weather, disruptions to supply chains and weaker-than-projected currencies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2024 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | 48.9 | 49.6 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 334 | 352 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.2 | 54.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 59.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -3.8 | -4.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.6 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 15.6 | 12.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 231 | 284 | 342 | 320 | 321 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.6 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,956 | 2,059 | 1,977 | 1,710 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 14.38 | 14.92 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | 167 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 |