Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Regional growth should rise from this year from last on population growth, progress on debt deals, economic reforms and increased investment attractiveness. That said, downside risks are mounting amid changes in the U.S.’ trade and aid policy. The expiration of the U.S.’ preferential investment and trade policy for sub-Saharan Africa at end-2025 is a risk.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 10.0% in March from February’s 10.3%. Our panelists expect inflation to slow from last year in 2025 on past interest rate increases. Still, inflation will remain above central banks’ targets in most countries in 2025. Extreme weather and weaker-than-anticipated domestic currencies are upside risks to the outlook.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.5 | 54.8 | 54.2 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 12.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 13.98 | 14.32 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 333 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 217 | 268 | 323 | 303 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | - | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.1 | -0.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,957 | 2,059 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | - |